Massachusetts Institute of Technology '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–9 (10%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 1–9 against 1.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.14 | 2.18 | 1–9 | 1.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Invitational at MIT | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.3 | 3.98 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.7 | 3.18 |
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 3.15 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.5 | 2.27 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.0 | 2.54 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 1.76 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.7 | 2.88 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.8 | 2.14 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.9 | 2.15 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.6 | 1.16 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 2.10 |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.8 | 3.28 |
| Crews Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 2.7 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Zachary Hall |  San Francisco University High School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
