Navigate

Midweek Fly Regatta #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 10 10
2 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 17 17
3 Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 26 26
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 26 26
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 30 30
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 40 40
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 40 40
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 40 40
9 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 44 44
10 Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 44 44
11 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 44 44
12 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 47 47
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 58 58
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 67 67
15 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 77 77
16 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 3 79 79
17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 81 81
18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 88 88
19 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 92 92
20 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 100 100
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 1 1 5 2 1 10 Brendan Cook '16
Hannah Callahan '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 3 5 3 1 5 17 John Wehner '18
Katherine Alfond '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 2 2 8 3 11 26 Joseph Benoit '16
Madison Sparber '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 5 4 4 5 8 26 William Reid '16
Greta Farrell '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 10 12 1 4 3 30 Victoria Mcgruer '17
Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 4 6 10 10 10 40 Peter Christensen '18
Lindsay Martinez '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 7 3 13 11 6 40 Myles Everett '18
Jacqueline Berlin '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 9 8 7 9 7 40 Heidi Hood '16
Eleanor Grams '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 6 7 12 15 4 44 Taylor Nathanson '18
Julien Guiot '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 8 11 6 7 12 44 Simon Bertocci '16
Danielle Stonely '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 12 9 15 6 2 44 Tyler Paige '18 [1, 4-5]
Ryan Epprecht '18 [2-3]
Ryan Epprecht '18 [1, 4-5]
Tyler Paige '18 [2-3]
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 11 10 9 8 9 47 Peter Sterflinger '17
Alexa Giovanis '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 15 15 2 13 13 58 Zachary Hall '18
Yu-Na Lee '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 13 13 11 14 16 67 Christina Wettersten '15
Lisa Archibald '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 19 16 16 12 14 77 Sarah Ertle '16
Linlin Chen '17
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 3 17 17 14 16 15 79 Thomas Pluchino '18
Amanda Balbi '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 14 14 18 18 17 81 Kyle Joba-Woodruff '17
Cali Warner '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 16 19 17 17 19 88 Brandon Carter '17
Matthew Davis '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 18 18 19 19 18 92 Marina Merchant '18
Lily Doolin '18
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 20 20 20 20 20 100 Linlin Chen '17
Zhuoying Zhang '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 11010101010
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 21111111111
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers 31212121212
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 199999
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 21313131313
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 31515151515
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 166666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 277777
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 388888
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 41818181818
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 52020202020
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 133333
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 244444
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 355555
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 41616161616
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 51717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21414141414
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 122222
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 21919191919
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 Joseph Benoit '16 Madison Sparber '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 Brendan Cook '16 Hannah Callahan '16
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 Simon Bertocci '16 Danielle Stonely '17
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 Marina Merchant '18 Lily Doolin '18
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 Peter Sterflinger '17 Alexa Giovanis '17
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 3 Thomas Pluchino '18 Amanda Balbi '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 Kyle Joba-Woodruff '17 Cali Warner '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 Brandon Carter '17 Matthew Davis '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 William Reid '16 Greta Farrell '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 Zachary Hall '18 Yu-Na Lee '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 Christina Wettersten '15 Lisa Archibald '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 Peter Christensen '18 Lindsay Martinez '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 John Wehner '18 Katherine Alfond '19
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 Victoria Mcgruer '17 Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 Heidi Hood '16 Eleanor Grams '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 Myles Everett '18 Jacqueline Berlin '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 Taylor Nathanson '18 Julien Guiot '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 Tyler Paige '18 [1, 4-5]
Ryan Epprecht '18 [2-3]		 Ryan Epprecht '18 [1, 4-5]
Tyler Paige '18 [2-3]
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 Linlin Chen '17 Zhuoying Zhang '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 Sarah Ertle '16 Linlin Chen '17

Conditions — 09/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1029.8 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From NE (53°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine3.8 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1029.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →