Northeastern University '18
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 1.97 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 10 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.83 (fleet 2.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–67 (19%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 5–27 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 5–28 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (83 matches) the record is 16–67 against 17.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Staake Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.50 | 2.15 | 2–18 | 2.7 | −0.35 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.54 | 1.13 | 3–9 | 6.0 | −1.41 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2016-03-26 | Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | skipper | 2.17 | -0.83 | 0–12 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.83 | 2.75 | 5–16 | 2.5 | +0.91 | 1.8 | 9% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 1.84 | 2.68 | 2–6 | 1.2 | +0.84 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 2014-03-29 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 1.25 | 0.46 | 4–6 | 5.0 | −0.79 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 10% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.0 | 2.50 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.0 | 2.42 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Alymers | Skipper | B | 16 | 2.8 | 2.40 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.7 | 2.59 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 10.2 | 2.60 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.7 | 2.63 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.3 | 2.19 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.4 | 3.40 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.8 | 2.37 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.0 | 2.57 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.0 | 2.26 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.7 | 2.35 |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 24% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | 2.70 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.4 | 2.24 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.9 | 1.54 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.1 | 2.18 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 1.21 |
| Central Series One | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 1.44 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.7 | 1.58 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 12.8 | 2.00 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 7.8 | 1.68 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Lark Invitational Central Series #1 | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.4 | -1.32 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.8 | 1.16 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 14.7 | 1.41 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.0 | 2.10 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.7 | 1.46 |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 1.48 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | 1.68 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.6 | 0.98 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.3 | 0.04 |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 8.5 | 1.49 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 14.4 | 1.12 |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.9 | 1.67 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | 1.30 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 1.20 |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.3 | 1.58 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 23.6 | -0.32 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
