| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 9–2 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 8–3 |
| 3 |  |
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | 5–5 |
| 4 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Bates College | Bobcats | 4–6 |
| 6 |  |
Bentley University | Falcons | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,109 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 31 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.537 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.64 ± 0.32: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 7% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bentley University | 1.58 | 2.46 | 1–9 | 0.5 | +0.88 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 3 | Massachusetts Maritime Academy | 4.18 | 4.92 | 5–5 | 4.1 | +0.74 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 5 | Bates College | 3.70 | 4.34 | 4–6 | 3.2 | +0.64 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 6.83 | 7.13 | 9–2 | 8.7 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 4 | Northeastern University | 4.72 | 3.93 | 4–6 | 5.0 | −0.79 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2 | Tufts University | 7.40 | 6.04 | 8–3 | 9.6 | −1.36 | 1.7 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Jumbos | Buccaneers | Huskies | Bobcats | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Bates College Bobcats | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Bentley University Falcons | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Jumbos | Buccaneers | Huskies | Bobcats | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–2 | ✕ | L | W | W | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Bates College Bobcats | 3–2 | W | W | W | L | ✕ | L |
| Bentley University Falcons | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Jumbos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bobcats | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bobcats | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Huskies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bobcats | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Huskies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Buccaneers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bobcats | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bobcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bobcats | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Buccaneers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 1-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Bobcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bobcats | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Bobcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Buccaneers | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bobcats | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Ian Hollerbach '14 Jonathan Pope '17 Kendal Richardson '17 |
Brigette Croke '17 Abigail Cook '15 Riley Eger '17 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Cameron Barclift '14 James Moody '16 Rolfe Glover '16 |
Sadie Woolf '17 Eliza White '14 Leah Fletcher '17 |
|
Massachusetts Maritime Academy | Buccaneers | George Luber '17 Kyle Brego '17 Ryan Novak-Smith '17 |
Kaitlyn Nanartowich '14 Evan Sampou '17 David Rodriguez '17 |
|
Northeastern University | Huskies | Camille Matile '17 Peter Christensen '18 Victoria Mcgruer '17 |
Emily Browning '16 Eleanor Grams '18 Estella Lofftus '16 |
|
Bates College | Bobcats | Connor Bair-Cucchiaro '15 John Cappetta '16 Mackenzie Macrae '16 |
Alison Maas '17 Michela Moscufo '16 Katlyn Flynn '15 |
|
Bentley University | Falcons | Colby Vickerson '17 Kristina Schneider '16 Sarah Bouchie '16 |
Sam Alpert '17 Luke Anneser '17 Christine Reighley '15 Cassandra Layman '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
