Northeastern University '17
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.39 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 13 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.17 (fleet 3.01) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–21 (16%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 4–21 against 6.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.02 | -0.98 | 0–15 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| 2014-03-29 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 1.56 | 0.77 | 4–6 | 5.0 | −0.79 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 3.26 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.3 | 2.94 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.3 | 3.40 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.5 | 2.18 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.8 | 3.31 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.8 | 2.71 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.0 | 3.17 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 3.73 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 4.3 | 4.12 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.2 | 2.81 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | 2.29 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.4 | 1.73 |
| Central 3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 3.26 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.3 | 1.58 |
| Tufts Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.7 | 2.79 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.4 | 0.21 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.7 | 2.18 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.8 | 1.49 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.7 | 2.68 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.7 | 2.05 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.3 | 2.71 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | 1.76 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.8 | 2.49 |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.9 | 1.12 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.1 | 2.41 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.0 | 2.77 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 2.54 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Dark of Night | Crew | B | 2 | 6.5 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.5 | 2.09 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.5 | 0.69 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.1 | 1.08 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.5 | 1.45 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.6 | 0.61 |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 2.43 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 16.3 | 0.36 |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.0 | 1.42 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.2 | 2.08 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.5 | 1.91 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 8 | 9.4 | 2.15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
