Tufts University '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.68 (fleet 2.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–3 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 8–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 8–3 against 9.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 1.87 | 0.51 | 8–3 | 9.6 | −1.36 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| 10th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.4 | 1.02 |
| Colgate Promo 1 Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.0 | — |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 2.01 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wellahan Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | 1.58 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta 9/26 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.8 | 2.23 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 1.65 |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.4 | 2.79 |
| Commonwealth Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 1.83 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.8 | 1.26 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.2 | 0.66 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tyrell Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.1 | 4.12 |
| Kruger Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 2.3 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Mascoma Invitational (N. Series 2) | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.0 | 0.67 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.1 | 1.38 |
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | -0.45 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 2.52 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.9 | -1.74 |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | B | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Crew | B, D | 18 | 12.6 | — |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.6 | 2.28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
