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Midweek Fly Regatta 9/26

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 6 6
2 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 11 11
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 21 21
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 23 23
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 23 23
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 25 25
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 27 27
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 30 30
9 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 35 35
10 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 39 39
11 Boston University Boston University Terriers 42 42
12 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 46 46
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 56 56
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 59 59
15 Colleges of the Fenway Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 60 60
16 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 61 61
17 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 62 62
18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 62 62
19 Endicott College Endicott College Gulls 72 72
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 2 1 1 2 6 Scott Goodrich '16
Taylor Williams '16
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 3 2 5 1 11 John Rolander '17
Caroline Ambros '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 4 9 7 21 Amanda Sommi '16
Julia Fuller '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 6 10 3 4 23 Elise Gehling '17
Kristen Kuzil '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 10 6 2 5 23 Luke Orchardo '16
Lindsay Wright '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 4 3 7 11 25 Jesse Thomas '17
Laura Tschiegg '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 7 9 8 3 27 Cameron Barclift '14
Caitlin Durand '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 5 7 10 8 30 Sam Gates '17
Claire Brodie '16
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 11 5 6 13 35 Colby Vickerson '17
Nicolas Bulgarides '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 14 11 4 10 39 Tasha Greenwood '15
Emily Browning '16
Boston University Boston University Terriers 13 8 12 9 42 Zachary Vickerson '16
Brendan Cook '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 9 12 11 14 46 Jamila Smith-Dell '16
Alissa Borshchenko '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 19 16 15 6 56 Andrew Stratton '15
Nicholas Paggi '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 17 14 13 15 59 Jeremy Kalas '16
Scarlett Koller '16
Colleges of the Fenway Colleges of the Fenway Fenway 12 17 14 17 60 John Zupkud '16
Jared Reineck '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 8 15 19 19 61 Evan Gregory '16
Eleanor Grams '18
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 15 13 18 16 62 Sarah Hyman '15
Jeremy Goodman '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 16 18 16 12 62 Nicole O'Brien '17
David Zhang '17
Endicott College Endicott College Gulls 18 19 17 18 72 Mike Mccue '??
Cate Brady '??
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons6666
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers7777
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges3333
Endicott CollegeEndicott College Gulls10101010
Colleges of the FenwayColleges of the Fenway Fenway11111111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers9999
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers12121212
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 18888
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 213131313
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 114141414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 215151515
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 316161616
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 417171717
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 518181818
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 620202020
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya2222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo5555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University4444

Conditions — 09/26/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1017.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →