Northeastern University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 55.94 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.116 rating points from 16 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.22 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 8 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.14 (fleet 2.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–9 (10%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 1–9 against 1.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 2.25 | 1.72 | 1–9 | 1.4 | −0.53 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.0 | 3.91 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.2 | 2.89 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 17.4 | 0.54 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.2 | 2.88 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.8 | 3.49 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.1 | 2.69 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.1 | 2.83 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.6 | 1.61 |
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.5 | 3.11 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.3 | 3.32 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.7 | 2.50 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.0 | 3.19 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.2 | 3.52 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | 2.67 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.4 | 1.94 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 14.5 | 2.30 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 3.75 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.8 | 2.92 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.7 | 2.65 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.9 | 2.44 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 14.3 | 2.11 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.8 | 1.35 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.0 | 2.16 |
| Midweek Fly Regatta 9/26 | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.5 | 5.23 |
| Harmon Cup -Sloops Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.0 | 0.81 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 2.15 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 2.89 |
| Chris Loder | Skipper | A | 3 | 2.7 | 4.13 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.0 | 1.82 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg | Skipper | C | 14 | 10.8 | 1.79 |
| Midweek 'Fly - Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.8 | 2.22 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 1.70 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 2.34 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 11.5 | — |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | 1.73 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.0 | 1.50 |
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.8 | 1.68 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 13.8 | 1.70 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.5 | 2.20 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 1.79 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 16.3 | 0.19 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 11.1 | — |
| Lark Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.2 | 0.09 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
