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Lark Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 8 15
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 17 19 36
3 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 18 20 38
4 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 20 26 46
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 33 17 50
6 Williams College Williams College Ephs 31 31 62
7 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 35 36 71
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 47 31 78
9 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 45 49 94
10 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 46 51 97
11 Colby College Colby College Colby 33 70 103
12 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 56 49 105
13 Blue Blue Blue 65 62 127
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 3 1 1 7 James Downer '15
Sarah Long '14
Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 2 4 2 5 17 Ian Paice '13
Rebecca Bar '12
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 8 2 4 2 18 Ames Lyman '14
Alice Kenney '14
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 6 4 1 5 4 20 Justin Marks '14
Jared Rodriguez '13
Williams College Williams College Ephs 3 5 5 8 10 31 Timothy Lorenzen '12
Helen Song '14
Colby College Colby College Colby 5 6 8 7 7 33 Max Jennings '15
Kim Johnson '14
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 7 3 BKD 10 6 33 Benjamin Mende '13
Katharine O'Brien '12
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 8 9 6 3 9 35 Johannes Raatz '15
Nick Belsito '13
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 9 12 7 6 11 45 Jacob Hardy '13
Helaine Meyer '14
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 11 7 11 DNF 3 46 William Kresic '13
Timothy Donahoe '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 10 11 9 9 8 47 Michael O'Brien '12
Carolyn Marsh '13
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 13 10 10 11 12 56 Francisco Salas '15
Andrew Gronet '13
Blue Blue Blue 12 13 12 DNF DNF 65
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 1 1 4 8 James Downer '15
Sarah Long '14
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 2 7 3 2 17 Benjmain Berg '12
Philip Koch '16
Boston University Boston University Terriers 2 5 4 2 6 19 Alejandro Bancalari '13
Emily Shepherd '15
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 9 3 3 4 1 20 Luke O'Connor '14
Nicholas Gordon '13
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 4 7 5 5 5 26 Will Humphrey '14
Williams College Williams College Ephs 6 10 6 6 3 31 Brent Bomkamp '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 8 6 2 8 7 31 Scott Goodrich '16
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 5 4 9 7 11 36
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 7 11 10 11 10 49
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges DNF 9 8 9 9 49 Josh Basseches '12
Davida Judelson '12
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies DNF 8 11 10 8 51
Blue Blue Blue BKD 12 DNF DNF 12 62
Colby College Colby College Colby DNF DNF DNF DNF DNF 70 Max Jennings '15
Kim Johnson '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs11334
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons44556
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1818113
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears55667
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges33445
Colby CollegeColby College Colby66779
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1111141415
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson779910
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1414151517
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies99101011
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1010111114
BlueBlue Blue1515171718
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs171718181

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs11333
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons44555
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1818111
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears55666
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges33444
Colby CollegeColby College Colby66777
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1111141414
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson77999
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1414151515
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies99101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1010111111
BlueBlue Blue1515171717
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs1717181818

Conditions — 10/15/2011 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1001.0 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
14.0 kn
avg  ·  max 15.7 kn
Gusts to 33.8 kn
From SW (221°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover19% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1001.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →