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Midweek 'Fly - Fall #1

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 5
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 18
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 19
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 24
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 28
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 30
7 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 31
8 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 44
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 48
10 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 52
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 63
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 66
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 66
14 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 3 66
15 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 70
16 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 72
17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 81
18 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 84
19 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 4 90
20 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 94
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 A 1 1 1 1 1 5 Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14
Linnea Goldstein '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 7 2 3 4 2 18 Rolfe Glover '16
Kate Wasynczuk '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 A 3 4 4 2 6 19 Conor Lodge '14
Kristen Kuzil '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 A 2 6 2 5 9 24 Scott Goodrich '16
Taylor Williams '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 A 6 5 6 6 5 28 Heidi Hood '16
Estella Lofftus '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya A 5 3 5 9 8 30 Colin Meade '16
Chrisanthe Salemis '16
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges A 4 9 8 3 7 31 Jacob Hardy '13
Kaitlin Hulce '14
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University A 9 7 17 7 4 44 Casey Gowrie '16
Danielle Feerst '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 A 10 15 10 10 3 48 Beckett Colson '16
Kayla Ngan '15
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 A 13 8 7 8 16 52 Winsor Williams '13
Erin Meltzer '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 A 8 17 14 14 10 63 Brian Belding '15
Grace Krusell '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo A 11 13 12 12 18 66 Pierre Dupont '16
Emily Peck '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 A 15 14 11 11 15 66 Lisa Archibald '16
Victoria Stivanello '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 3 A 17 10 9 18 12 66 Conall Finn '16
Sarah Conley '15
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue A 14 11 15 13 17 70 Robert Mcmullen '13
Vicky Zeamer '15
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 A 16 12 13 20 11 72 Gregory Henkelman '13
Christopher Voorman '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers A 19 16 16 16 14 81 Jamila Smith-Dell '16
Alissa Borshchenko '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 A 18 19 19 15 13 84 Sarah Mountjoy '14
Christina Wettersten '15
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 4 A 12 18 DNF 19 20 90 Mary Herman '13
Emily Greagori '13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 A 20 20 18 17 19 94 Noam Buckman '16
Pedro Brito '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2008 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges33333
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 11212121212
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 21313131313
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 31414141414
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats 41515151515
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers22222
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 111111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 244444
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 355555
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 466666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 577777
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 11616161616
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 21717171717
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 31818181818
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 42020202020
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya99999
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo1111111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos88888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University1010101010
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue1919191919
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges Jacob Hardy '13 Kaitlin Hulce '14
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 1 Winsor Williams '13 Erin Meltzer '14
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 Gregory Henkelman '13 Christopher Voorman '14
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 3 Conall Finn '16 Sarah Conley '15
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 4 Mary Herman '13 Emily Greagori '13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers Jamila Smith-Dell '16 Alissa Borshchenko '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 Beckett Colson '16 Kayla Ngan '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 Noam Buckman '16 Pedro Brito '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 Sarah Mountjoy '14 Christina Wettersten '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4 Lisa Archibald '16 Victoria Stivanello '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 5 Brian Belding '15 Grace Krusell '14
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 Scott Goodrich '16 Taylor Williams '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14 Linnea Goldstein '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 Conor Lodge '14 Kristen Kuzil '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 Heidi Hood '16 Estella Lofftus '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya Colin Meade '16 Chrisanthe Salemis '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo Pierre Dupont '16 Emily Peck '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos Rolfe Glover '16 Kate Wasynczuk '16
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University Casey Gowrie '16 Danielle Feerst '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue Robert Mcmullen '13 Vicky Zeamer '15

Conditions — 09/27/2012 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From NNE (25°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1021.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →