Northeastern University '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.03 (fleet 2.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–22 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 16–22 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 16–22 against 11.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.72 | 4.00 | 12–6 | 7.7 | +1.29 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.35 | 2.60 | 4–16 | 3.4 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 45% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.8 | 2.33 |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Icebreaker Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 3.10 |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.1 | 3.04 |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.9 | 2.96 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.9 | 2.85 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.1 | 2.81 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.4 | 2.53 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.3 | 2.21 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.7 | 2.30 |
| Moody | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 3.53 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.1 | 2.57 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.1 | 3.21 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.5 | 2.81 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.5 | 0.93 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.5 | 2.62 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.2 | 2.44 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.0 | 2.72 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.1 | 1.99 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.4 | 1.08 |
| Oberg | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.7 | 2.15 |
| Midweek 'Fly - Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 2.64 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | 2.60 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.3 | 1.68 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.1 | 2.09 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 16.7 | 1.64 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.2 | 1.43 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.0 | 2.32 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.8 | 2.72 |
| RI State Champs @ SRU | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.6 | 2.44 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.8 | 2.25 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 1.81 |
| Nicholas J. Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.9 | 1.39 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.5 | 2.55 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.6 | 1.93 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.9 | 2.26 |
| Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 2.01 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.9 | 2.07 |
| Old Guard/ Owen Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.8 | 2.02 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.3 | 0.78 |
| New England Dinghy Tournament | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.9 | 2.11 |
| 8th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.8 | 1.95 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.5 | 2.07 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.4 | 2.02 |
| Nicholas J. Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.3 | 1.74 |
| 70th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.7 | 2.22 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 1.99 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 2.97 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.2 | 1.20 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.5 | 2.87 |
| New England Dinghy Tournament | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 0.44 |
| Boston University Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 2.07 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.3 | 2.48 |
| Oberg Trophy- Greater Boston | Skipper | C | 12 | 9.2 | 1.91 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
