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Dark of Night Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 5 2 7
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 11 15
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 9 12 21
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 11 11 22
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 12 20 32
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers! 21 14 35
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 18 19 37
8 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 30 7 37
9 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 15 24 39
10 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 13 26 39
11 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 11 29 40
12 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 24 17 41
13 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 23 19 42
14 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 29 14 43
15 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 24 34 58
16 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 35 25 60
17 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 32 30 62
18 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 32 33 65
19 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 32 33 65
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 1 2 Tyler Rice '14
Courtney Bergh '16
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 3 4 7 Sebastian Kern '17
Emily Cordner '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbo 4 7 11 Sam Gates '17
Claire Brodie '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 6 11 James Moody '16
Kate Wasynczuk '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 10 2 12 Duncan Swain '15
Julie Pringle '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 6 8 14 Nicole O'Brien '17
Jorlyn Le Garrec '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers! 9 5 14 Erica Lush '14
Elizabeth Glivinski '14
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 7 10 17 Pierre Dupont '16
Emily Peck '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 2 17 19 Erin Meltzer '14 [1-2]
Heather Ireland '15 [1]
Christopher Voorman '14 [2]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 16 3 19 Conor Lodge '14
Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
Boston University Boston University Terriers 11 9 20 Jackson Chabot '14
Indre Jankeviciute '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 8 16 24 Luke Orchardo '16
Kristen Kuzil '16
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 2 13 12 25 Kristina Schneider '16
Julie Fuller '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 12 14 26 Gordon Moseley Andrews '17
Ellie Simonson '17
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 1 18 11 29 Tyler Durant '14
Andrew Snodgrass '17
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 17 13 30 Emily Peabody '16
Elizabeth Resnick '15
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 14 19 33 Andrew Silhavy '14
Morgan Handy '16
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 15 18 33 Joaquin Benares '15
Kevin Winnie '16
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 19 15 34 Jade Forsberg '17
Anna Hopper '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons 111
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons 233
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers66
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers!77
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears44
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies2222
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats99
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 11010
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 21111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers1313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1212
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats2323
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 11414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 21515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya1818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo2121
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University2020
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals2424

Division B

Team1B2B
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons 111
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons 233
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers66
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers!77
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears44
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies2222
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats99
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 11010
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 21111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers1313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1212
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats2323
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 11414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 21515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya1818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbo2121
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University2020
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals2424
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bentley University Bentley University Colby Vickerson '17 Nicolas Bulgarides '17
Falcons 1 Tyler Durant '14 Andrew Snodgrass '17
Bentley University Bentley University Regan Yeung '16 Luke Anneser '17
Falcons 2 Kristina Schneider '16 Julie Fuller '16
Boston University Boston University Cameron Fraser '14 Justin Kusiel '14
Terriers Jackson Chabot '14 Indre Jankeviciute '15
Boston University Boston University Conor Fowler '14 Michael Saldi '15
Terriers! Erica Lush '14 Elizabeth Glivinski '14
Brown University Brown University Judge Ryan '14 Marina Cano '17
Bears Tyler Rice '14 Courtney Bergh '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Peter Sterflinger '17 Max Hammon '14
Wildcats Erin Meltzer '14 [1-2] Heather Ireland '15 [1]
Christopher Voorman '14 [2]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Kyle Joba-Woodruff '17 David Zhang '17
Angry Beavers Gordon Moseley Andrews '17 Ellie Simonson '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cali Warner '16 Alissa Borshchenko '16
Engineers Nicole O'Brien '17 Jorlyn Le Garrec '17
Middlebury College Middlebury College Mark Sinks '17 Ben Brown '18
Panthers 1 Sebastian Kern '17 Emily Cordner '13
Middlebury College Middlebury College Peter Kerby-Miller '17 Sean Willerford '14
Panthers 2 Jade Forsberg '17 Anna Hopper '14
Northeastern University Northeastern University Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk '14 Janelle Veary '15
Huskies 1 Conor Lodge '14 Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Becker Awqatty '14 Linnea Goldstein '16
Huskies 2 Luke Orchardo '16 Kristen Kuzil '16
Tufts University Tufts University Viktor Wettergren '14 Alexander Tong '17
Jumbalaya Duncan Swain '15 Julie Pringle '14
Tufts University Tufts University John Rolander '17 Natalie Danziger '17
Jumbo Sam Gates '17 Claire Brodie '16
Tufts University Tufts University Willem Sandberg '14 Mara Porter '14
Jumbos James Moody '16 Kate Wasynczuk '16
Tufts University Tufts University Rolfe Glover '16 Leah Fletcher '17
Tufts University Pierre Dupont '16 Emily Peck '16
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Shane Baker '17 Marissa Eklund '17
Huskies Andrew Silhavy '14 Morgan Handy '16
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Paige Fagan '14 Sarah Martin '15
Wildcats Emily Peabody '16 Elizabeth Resnick '15
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Elaine Maskus '15 Katherine Walker '16
Cardinals Joaquin Benares '15 Kevin Winnie '16

Conditions — 11/14/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 31°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From WSW (250°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1018.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 2 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.82 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →