Boston University '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 58.74 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 18 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.28 (fleet 3.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 64–70 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 34–40 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 30–30 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (102 matches) the record is 46–56 against 49.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.07 | 2.93 | 7–15 | 7.6 | −0.13 | 0.1 | 69% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 3.20 | 2.82 | 12–11 | 13.7 | −0.38 | 0.5 | 85% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.29 | 3.05 | 6–6 | 6.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.89 | 3.53 | 9–8 | 7.4 | +0.64 | 0.8 | 23% |
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 3.29 | 3.07 | 7–5 | 7.5 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 2.95 | 2.29 | 5–11 | 6.8 | −0.66 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Harry Anderson Jr Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 3.69 |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 52% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 11 | 12.6 | 2.65 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.7 | 2.90 |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.5 | 3.21 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.1 | 2.84 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.8 | 3.57 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.6 | 3.23 |
| Mid-week Firefly #2 | Crew | A | 3 | 4.7 | — |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.0 | 4.07 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.6 | 3.69 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.1 | 3.75 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.8 | 3.42 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.0 | 3.02 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.3 | 3.44 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.5 | 2.71 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.1 | 3.20 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.1 | 2.69 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.7 | 2.14 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.4 | 4.07 |
| Friis & Marchiando Trophies | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.3 | 2.69 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.6 | 2.30 |
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.1 | 3.17 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 3.23 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.6 | 2.20 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.9 | 3.10 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.4 | 1.94 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.7 | 2.64 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.8 | 2.97 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.0 | 2.81 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.9 | 2.60 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 12.3 | 2.13 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.8 | 2.48 |
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Series T | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.6 | 2.47 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 2.60 |
| Harry Anderson | Crew | A | 2 | 10.0 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | B | 2 | 10.5 | — |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.9 | 0.43 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 1.64 |
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Ser | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.7 | 3.26 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Underdog Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.0 | 0.70 |
| Commonwealth Series | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.0 | 2.14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
