| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 8–4 |
| 2 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 7–5 |
| 2 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 7–5 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 7–5 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 6–6 |
| 6 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 5–7 |
| 7 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 2–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,446 team race matches sailed before 2013-04-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 42 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.840 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.34 ± 0.30: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 6.69 | 9.40 | 6–6 | 1.1 | +2.71 | 11.3 | <1% |
| 1 | Bowdoin College | 9.24 | 9.95 | 8–4 | 6.4 | +0.71 | 0.8 | 23% |
| 2 | Boston University | 9.61 | 9.40 | 7–5 | 7.5 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 6 | University of Rhode Island | 9.09 | 8.55 | 5–7 | 6.1 | −0.54 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 7 | Salve Regina University | 7.71 | 7.13 | 2–10 | 2.8 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2 | Roger Williams University | 10.22 | 9.27 | 7–5 | 9.0 | −0.95 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2 | Tufts University | 10.25 | 9.27 | 7–5 | 9.1 | −0.98 | 1.5 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Terriers | Hawks | Jumbos | Bears | Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 2–4 | ✕ | L | L | L | W | W | L |
| Boston University Terriers | 5–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 4–2 | W | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–3 | W | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–3 | L | W | W | L | ✕ | W | L |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 2–4 | W | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Bears | Terriers | Hawks | Jumbos | Bears | Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 6–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 2–4 | L | ✕ | L | L | L | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–3 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–2 | L | W | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–3 | L | W | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 3–3 | L | L | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 2-4-6 | def. | |
Rams | 1-3-5 DSQ |
| 10 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Polar Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Terriers | 2-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-5 DSQ |
| 40 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | Kaylee Schwitzer '15 Michael Croteau '15 Tom Peabody '14 |
Mae Speight '13 Julia Rew '16 Ayaka Okawa '14 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Cameron Fraser '14 Ian Towill '14 Ryan Astwood '16 |
Alejandra Higgins '13 Lalitha Kumaresan '13 Margaret Swanson '16 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Andrew Tamblyn '13 Connor Brady '15 William Macdonald '15 |
Breanne Baldino '16 Jaye Fahey '15 Chelsea Maguire '13 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Dan Nickerson '15 Duncan Swain '15 |
Mackenzie Loy '13 Madeline Luce '13 Julie Pringle '14 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Bradley Brown '15 Bradley Milliken '14 Dylan Finneran '15 |
Kayla Ellis '16 Robert Turley '16 Jaimie Chicoine '14 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Alex Whipple '15 James Simmons '13 Matthew Coughlin '16 |
Molly Lucyk '16 Elizabeth Durgin '16 Chris Dawson '16 |
|
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | Christopher Jensen '14 Kyle Carney '13 Robert Lippincott '14 |
Catherine Corssen '15 Angelina Todaro '16 Baillie Lawless '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
