Roger Williams University '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 71.75 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.075 rating points from 356 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 39–28 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | — | 15–7 |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | — | 17–14 |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | — | 7–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (34 matches) the record is 22–12 against 26.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | crew | 2.90 | 2.77 | 12–3 | 12.3 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | crew | 3.16 | 1.80 | 3–4 | 4.9 | −1.36 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | crew | 3.08 | 2.13 | 7–5 | 9.0 | −0.95 | 1.4 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | B | 5 | 7.4 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 6.7 | — |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 11 | 10.4 | — |
| Central Series 3 | Crew | B | 2 | 3.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 8.4 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 7.3 | — |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Crew | B | 10 | 4.3 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Crew | B | 10 | 5.3 | — |
| Central Series 6 | Crew | B | 12 | 5.7 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Team Race Invitational | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 11.2 | — |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 9.3 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 5.3 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 11.4 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 10.4 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Crew | B | 17 | 6.3 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 6.3 | — |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Crew | A | 7 | 6.6 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Crew | B | 9 | 4.9 | — |
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy | Crew | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Crew | B | 12 | 6.9 | — |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Crew | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 6.3 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 7.8 | — |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 6.3 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 7.9 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Crew | A | 10 | 3.0 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| FJ Invitational Day 2 | Crew | A | 6 | 2.3 | — |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Championship, Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 11.1 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 9.4 | — |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Crew | B | 18 | 12.1 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 9.9 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 26 | 4.3 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 12.0 | — |
| Spring 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 7.0 | — |
| 80th Boston DinghyCup | Crew | B | 10 | 9.3 | — |
| Fall 2008 Team page Season | |||||
| Hatch Brown | Crew | B | 12 | 10.1 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
