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Central Series 3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 6 8
2 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 6 7 13
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 8 6 14
4 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 10 7 17
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14 6 20
6 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 8 19 27
7 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 15 13 28
8 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 14 15 29
9 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 19 12 31
10 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 14 21 35
11 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 24 21 45
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (43 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson11
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners22
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers33
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats99
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies44
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1010
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks55
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks66
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos77
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs88
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards1111

Division B

Team1B2B
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson66
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners77
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers88
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats33
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies99
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams44
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks1010
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks1111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos11
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs22
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards55

Conditions — 04/04/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1003.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
15.0 kn
avg  ·  max 18.8 kn
Gusts to 38.1 kn
From WNW (301°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1003.6 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 19 kn · W 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Harvard: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.19 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →