Tufts University '14
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.01 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 10 | Spring 2012 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.78 (fleet 2.46) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–15 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 2 | 9–10 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 13–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 22–15 against 23.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.52 | 3.59 | 6–3 | 4.1 | +1.07 | 1.4 | 14% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.31 | 1.58 | 3–7 | 4.2 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.47 | 1.54 | 13–5 | 15.3 | −0.93 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Ryan Richards Alumni Regatta | Crew | A, B | 5 | 9.6 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Toole | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.2 | 1.56 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.0 | 0.94 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.2 | 2.38 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.7 | 2.19 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.2 | 2.72 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.5 | 3.23 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.2 | 3.03 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.5 | 2.38 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 1.96 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | 2.91 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.3 | 4.01 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| 10th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.4 | 1.46 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 3.14 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.6 | 2.46 |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.6 | 3.83 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.8 | 3.36 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.0 | 2.71 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.0 | 1.89 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 3.62 |
| Commonwealth Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.5 | 3.10 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 4.20 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Kruger Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.3 | 1.91 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.0 | 0.90 |
| 20th O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | -0.26 |
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.7 | 1.95 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
