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Mt. Hope Bay Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 37 41 78
2 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 60 22 82
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 34 53 87
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 48 40 88
5 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 73 33 106
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 67 41 108
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 43 73 116
8 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 62 73 135
9 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 82 84 166
10 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 78 106 184
11 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 86 118 204
12 Providence College Providence College Friars 122 108 230
13 Williams College Williams College Ephs 120 123 243
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 3 2 3 4 7 3 1 2 6 3 34 J. Jacob '16
Tatiana Chiu '17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 1 2 1 1 7 9 1 7 7 37 Caleb Armstrong '16 [1-6]
Chanel Miller '14 [7-10]
Emily Gaylord '17 [1-6]
Courtney Bombardier '16 [7-10]
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 12 4 4 3 6 5 2 3 3 1 43 Nathan Allman '16
Ragna Eide '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 3 1 11 2 2 11 7 1 2 48 Dan Nickerson '15
Jamie Maffeo '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 6 11 6 3 10 3 5 8 6 60 Jesse Thomas '17
Taylor Williams '16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 9 5 5 2 4 11 7 4 10 5 62 Christina Frost '16
Ninive Pineda '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 5 12 8 9 5 1 8 6 4 9 67 Emmett Weeks '14
Olivia Lord '17
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 7 8 12 10 9 4 6 8 5 4 73 Scott Booth '16 [1-10]
Connor Adams '15 [1-4]
Augustina Dickinson '17 [5-10]
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 4 11 7 8 13 6 10 9 2 8 78 Peter Sterflinger '17
Heather Ireland '15
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 10 9 6 7 8 8 5 10 9 10 82 Daniel Barry '15
Ryan Davis '16
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 6 7 10 5 10 9 4 11 12 12 86 Michael Rottier '15 [1-8]
Andrew Silhavy '14 [9-10]
Jemma O'Donnell '15 [1-8]
Rebecca Sylvia '14 [9-10]
Williams College Williams College Ephs 11 10 9 13 12 12 13 12 DNS DNS 120 Brent Bomkamp '15
Reidar Rivelland '17
Providence College Providence College Friars 13 13 13 12 11 13 12 13 11 11 122 Lou Magarelli '16
Ryan Dill '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 1 2 4 5 3 1 2 1 1 22 Becker Awqatty '14
Linnea Goldstein '16
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 4 7 1 3 1 2 3 4 4 33 A. Tucker Atterbury '16
Morgan Wheeler '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 5 4 3 4 9 5 1 3 5 40 Viktor Wettergren '14
Alexander Tong '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 3 6 1 7 2 5 3 5 2 7 41 Timothy Harding '15
Marina Cano '17
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 6 7 3 2 1 2 4 8 5 3 41 Rachel Bryer '17 [1-4]
Ian White '16 [5-6]
Christina Lewis '16 [7-10]
Fiona Christie '17 [1-6]
Danielle Arpino '15 [7-10]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 7 3 5 6 8 4 7 4 7 2 53 Jonathan Pope '17
Nicole Sikowitz '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 5 2 9 DSQ 6 6 9 7 9 6 73 Luis Marban '17
Joshua Moan '15
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 10 8 8 5 9 7 6 6 6 8 73 Alexandra Swanson '16
Elizabeth Sturr '15
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 8 9 6 8 11 8 8 9 8 9 84 Karl Ryder '16
Alexander Hunt '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 11 11 10 9 7 13 12 12 11 10 106 Christopher Voorman '14
Erin Meltzer '14
Providence College Providence College Friars 9 10 12 10 12 12 11 11 10 11 108 John Coulter '16 [1-10]
Colleen Cassidy '15 [1-5]
Abby Mclaughlin '15 [6-10]
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 13 13 13 12 13 10 10 10 12 12 118 Kimberly Jackman '16 [1-6]
Shannan Smith '15 [7-10]
Nichole Sylvester '15 [1-6]
Catherine Stavola '14 [7-10]
Williams College Williams College Ephs 12 12 11 11 10 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS 123 Sara Clark '15
Caroline Kaufman '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1224466881010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2335577991111
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears44668810101212
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies13131616335577
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats55779911111313
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers7799111113131616
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies8810101212151522
Providence CollegeProvidence College Friars9911111313161633
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams151522446688
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Blue1111131316163355
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks1010121215152244
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos12121515224466
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs161633557799

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1335577991111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 244668810101212
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears55779911111313
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies151522446688
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats6688101012121515
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers8810101212151522
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies9911111313161633
Providence CollegeProvidence College Friars1010121215152244
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams161633557799
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Blue12121515224466
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks1111131316163355
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos13131616335577
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs224466881010
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brown University Brown University Emmett Weeks '14 Olivia Lord '17
Bears 1 Timothy Harding '15 Marina Cano '17
Brown University Brown University Nathan Allman '16 Ragna Eide '16
Bears 2 Alexandra Swanson '16 Elizabeth Sturr '15
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Peter Sterflinger '17 Heather Ireland '15
Wildcats Christopher Voorman '14 Erin Meltzer '14
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Daniel Barry '15 Ryan Davis '16
Buccaneers Karl Ryder '16 Alexander Hunt '16
Northeastern University Northeastern University Jesse Thomas '17 Taylor Williams '16
Huskies Becker Awqatty '14 Linnea Goldstein '16
Providence College Providence College Lou Magarelli '16 Ryan Dill '15
Friars John Coulter '16 [1-10] Colleen Cassidy '15 [1-5]
Abby Mclaughlin '15 [6-10]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University J. Jacob '16 Tatiana Chiu '17
Blue Jonathan Pope '17 Nicole Sikowitz '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Scott Booth '16 [1-10] Connor Adams '15 [1-4]
Augustina Dickinson '17 [5-10]
Hawks A. Tucker Atterbury '16 Morgan Wheeler '15
Tufts University Tufts University Dan Nickerson '15 Jamie Maffeo '15
Jumbos Viktor Wettergren '14 Alexander Tong '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Christina Frost '16 Ninive Pineda '17
Bears Luis Marban '17 Joshua Moan '15
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Michael Rottier '15 [1-8]
Andrew Silhavy '14 [9-10]		 Jemma O'Donnell '15 [1-8]
Rebecca Sylvia '14 [9-10]
Huskies Kimberly Jackman '16 [1-6]
Shannan Smith '15 [7-10]		 Nichole Sylvester '15 [1-6]
Catherine Stavola '14 [7-10]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Caleb Armstrong '16 [1-6]
Chanel Miller '14 [7-10]		 Emily Gaylord '17 [1-6]
Courtney Bombardier '16 [7-10]
Rams Rachel Bryer '17 [1-4]
Ian White '16 [5-6]
Christina Lewis '16 [7-10]		 Fiona Christie '17 [1-6]
Danielle Arpino '15 [7-10]
Williams College Williams College Brent Bomkamp '15 Reidar Rivelland '17
Ephs Sara Clark '15 Caroline Kaufman '15

Conditions — 09/14/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From NW (314°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1013.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →