Roger Williams University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.46 (fleet 3.40) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–17 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 32–17 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 13–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (62 matches) the record is 45–17 against 47.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 2.95 | 8–4 | 8.9 | −0.40 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 3.40 | 3.28 | 12–3 | 12.3 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.43 | 2.65 | 9–6 | 11.1 | −0.78 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.68 | 2.32 | 3–4 | 4.9 | −1.36 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2013-10-19 | Norman Reid Trophy | skipper | 3.15 | 6.14 | 13–0 | 10.7 | ≥+3.00 | 3.6 | 7% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 4 | 7.8 | 3.12 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 3.71 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 100% | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.4 | 3.53 |
| Moody | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.8 | 3.51 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 6.9 | 3.48 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
