Team Race Invitational

HostBoston College
Date03/22/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Two-Conference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–3
2	Boston College	Eagles	11–4
3	Cornell University	Big Red	10–5
4	Harvard University	Crimson	8–7
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	2–13
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	2–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,744 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 45 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.492 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.14 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	9.86 school +0.08	Stewart Draheim / Jaye Fahey 2.90 J. Jacob / Sara Swanson 3.40 Connor Needham / Samantha Bobo 3.43	82%	12–3 (80%)	−0.2
2	Boston College Eagles	3	9.12 home +0.27	Harry Koeppel / Fiona Walsh 2.89 Domenic Bove / Kristen Mabie 2.86 Henry Dumke / Isabelle Salvaterra 2.86 6–3 Ryan Schmitz / Isabelle Salvaterra 2.71 5–1	67%	11–4 (73%)	+0.9
3	Cornell University Big Red	4	8.07 school −0.06	Duncan Howes / Claire Riedman 2.99 7–2 Matthew Schofield / Lindsey Ludwig 2.85 7–2 Alex Woloshyn / Gregory Reppucci 2.49 7–2 Duncan Howes / Gregory Reppucci 3.10 3–3 Matthew Schofield / Alex Gatto 2.82 3–3 Collin Clark / Claire Riedman 1.76 3–3	43%	10–5 (67%)	+3.5
4	Harvard University Crimson	2	9.35 school −0.24	Michael Drumm / Luke O'Connor 3.36 Marek Zaleski / Emma Wheeler 3.22 Matthew Mollerus / Isabel Ruane 2.90	69%	8–7 (53%)	−2.4
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	7.53 school +0.25	Marissa Lihan / Molly Hanson 2.78 Killian Corbishley / Connor Hendi 2.70 Spencer Nora / Hannah Hughes 1.59	30%	2–13 (13%)	−2.5
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6	6.23 school −0.43	Bradley Milliken / Cyrus Unvala 2.73 Christina Frost / Morgan Rhodes Andrew Britton / Joshua Moan	9%	2–13 (13%)	+0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Cornell University	8.07	9.52	10–5	6.5	+1.46	3.8	2%
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	6.23	6.73	2–13	1.3	+0.49	0.3	39%
2	Boston College	9.12	9.50	11–4	10.1	+0.38	0.2	40%
1	Roger Williams University	9.86	9.73	12–3	12.3	−0.13	0.0	72%
4	Harvard University	9.35	8.47	8–7	10.4	−0.88	1.5	96%
5	U. S. Naval Academy	7.53	6.06	2–13	4.5	−1.47	2.4	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Collin Clark	Cornell University	1.76	3.56	3–3	0.9	+1.79	3.0	5%
Duncan Howes	Cornell University	2.99	4.45	10–5	6.5	+1.46	3.8	2%
Matthew Schofield	Cornell University	2.85	4.31	10–5	6.5	+1.46	3.8	2%
Alex Woloshyn	Cornell University	2.49	3.52	7–2	5.6	+1.03	1.0	22%
Henry Dumke	Boston College	2.86	3.50	6–3	4.9	+0.63	0.5	32%
Bradley Milliken	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.73	3.22	2–13	1.3	+0.49	0.3	39%
Christina Frost	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.97	2.47	2–13	1.3	+0.49	0.3	39%
Andrew Britton	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.48	1.97	2–13	1.3	+0.49	0.3	39%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	2.89	3.27	11–4	10.1	+0.38	0.2	40%
Domenic Bove	Boston College	2.86	3.24	11–4	10.1	+0.38	0.2	40%
J. Jacob	Roger Williams University	3.40	3.28	12–3	12.3	−0.13	0.0	72%
Connor Needham	Roger Williams University	3.43	3.31	12–3	12.3	−0.13	0.0	72%
Ryan Schmitz	Boston College	2.71	2.40	5–1	5.2	−0.31	0.1	83%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.36	2.48	8–7	10.4	−0.88	1.5	96%
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.22	2.34	8–7	10.4	−0.88	1.5	96%
Matthew Mollerus	Harvard University	2.90	2.01	8–7	10.4	−0.88	1.5	96%
Marissa Lihan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.78	1.31	2–13	4.5	−1.47	2.4	99%
Killian Corbishley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.70	1.23	2–13	4.5	−1.47	2.4	99%
Spencer Nora	U. S. Naval Academy	1.59	0.12	2–13	4.5	−1.47	2.4	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Cornell University	Harvard University	28%	upset
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	83%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Boston College	72%
1	4	Cornell University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	91%
1	5	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	64%
1	6	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
1	7	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	98%
1	8	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	9	Boston College	Harvard University	44%	upset
1	10	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
1	11	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	96%
1	12	Boston College	Cornell University	79%
1	13	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
1	14	Roger Williams University	Cornell University	90%
1	15	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
2	16	Harvard University	Cornell University	73%
2	17	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	U. S. Naval Academy	22%	upset
2	18	Roger Williams University	Boston College	66%
2	19	Cornell University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	89%
2	20	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	62%
2	21	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
2	22	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
2	23	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
2	24	Harvard University	Boston College	53%
2	25	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	91%
2	26	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	5%	upset
2	27	Cornell University	Boston College	20%	upset
2	28	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
2	29	Cornell University	Roger Williams University	10%	upset
2	30	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%
3	31	Harvard University	Cornell University	74%
3	32	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	77%
3	33	Boston College	Roger Williams University	36%	upset
3	34	Cornell University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
3	35	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	62%
3	36	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
3	37	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
3	38	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	68%
3	39	Boston College	Harvard University	47%	upset
3	40	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	90%
3	41	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	95%
3	42	Boston College	Cornell University	81%
3	43	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
3	44	Cornell University	Roger Williams University	10%	upset
3	45	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	94%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Eagles	Red	Crimson	Midshipmen	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Eagles	Red	Crimson	Midshipmen	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–1	W	W	✕	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	L	W	W	✕	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	0–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–3	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Eagles	Red	Crimson	Midshipmen	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
2	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
3	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
4	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
5	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
6	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
7	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
8	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
9	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
10	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
11	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
12	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
13	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
14	Hawks	2-4-6	def.	Big Red	1-3-5 DSQ
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
16	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
17	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
18	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
19	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
21	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
22	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
23	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
24	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
25	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
26	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
27	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
28	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
29	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5 DSQ
30	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
31	Crimson	3-4-5	def.	Big Red	1-2-6 DSQ
32	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
33	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
34	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
35	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
36	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
37	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
38	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
39	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
40	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
41	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
42	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
43	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
44	Big Red	1-4-5 DSQ	def.	Hawks	2-3-6 DSQ,DSQ
45	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Needham '14 J. Jacob '16 Stewart Draheim '16	Samantha Bobo '15 Sara Swanson '16 Jaye Fahey '15
Boston College	Eagles	Domenic Bove '15 Harry Koeppel '17 Henry Dumke '17 Ryan Schmitz '15	Kristen Mabie '17 Fiona Walsh '17 Isabelle Salvaterra '14
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Woloshyn '17 Collin Clark '14 Duncan Howes '15 Matthew Schofield '17	Gregory Reppucci '15 Claire Riedman '16 Lindsey Ludwig '14 Alex Gatto '15
Harvard University	Crimson	Marek Zaleski '16 Matthew Mollerus '17 Michael Drumm '15	Emma Wheeler '17 Isabel Ruane '14 Luke O'Connor '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Killian Corbishley '14 Marissa Lihan '14 Spencer Nora '17	Connor Hendi '15 Molly Hanson '17 Hannah Hughes '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Andrew Britton '16 Bradley Milliken '14 Christina Frost '16	Joshua Moan '15 Cyrus Unvala '14 Morgan Rhodes '17

Conditions — 03/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1008.5 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 31°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.1 kn

avg · max 14.1 kn

Gusts to 32.3 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1008.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Boston College — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Boston College in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled fleet-race days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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