Harvard University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.27 (fleet 3.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–27 (56%) as crew 1–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 1–0 |
| Fall 2014 | 2 | 13–6 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 22–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (62 matches) the record is 35–27 against 36.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 3.21 | 1.77 | 4–5 | 6.5 | −1.44 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 3.08 | 4.62 | 9–1 | 7.0 | +1.54 | 1.9 | 12% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.72 | 2.96 | 10–8 | 9.2 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.90 | 2.01 | 8–7 | 10.4 | −0.88 | 1.5 | 96% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 2.81 | 3.32 | 4–6 | 3.0 | +0.51 | 0.4 | 35% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.2 | 3.08 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Lark Invitational Central Series #1 | Skipper | A | 14 | 2.3 | 2.70 |
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.8 | 3.10 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 8.8 | 3.06 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.9 | 3.21 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.6 | 2.61 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.8 | 2.14 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.3 | 3.52 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.4 | 3.64 |
| Navy Fall | Crew | A | 2 | 16.0 | — |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.3 | 4.48 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.2 | 2.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
