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Lark Invitational Central Series #1

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 71
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 139
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 172
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 213
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 220
6 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 302
7 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 340
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 2 2 1 1 1 4 3 1 7 1 3 4 1 1 32 Matthew Mollerus '17
Olivia Kjorlien '17
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 1 5 7 3 2 2 1 2 5 3 1 2 2 RDG 39 Nick Sertl '18
Emma Wheeler '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 10 6 3 2 6 3 2 5 2 4 5 8 7 3 66 Sam Gates '17 [1-14]
Caitlin Durand '15 [1-10]
Rachel Hanford '18 [11-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 5 7 DSQ 4 5 1 6 3 1 2 4 3 5 5 66 Aaron Klein '18 [1-14]
Julia Marshall '18 [1-10]
Grace Shank '18 [11-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 A 3 1 4 7 3 7 5 4 9 6 7 5 6 6 73 Ryan Epprecht '18 [1-10]
Tyler Paige '18 [11-14]
Grace Shank '18 [1-10]
Katherine Xu '18 [11-14]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 4 3 2 6 4 6 4 7 3 5 6 6 13 4 73 Taylor Nathanson '18
Isabelle Sennett '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 8 4 6 5 7 5 7 6 4 7 8 12 3 7 89 Peter Christensen '18
Lindsay Martinez '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 6 11 11 9 10 12 13 9 6 10 2 1 4 2 106 Grace Olsen '15 [1-10]
James Beatty '17 [11-14]
Rachel Hanford '18 [1-10]
Caitlin Durand '15 [11-14]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 7 9 9 10 8 10 11 10 11 9 RDG 11 9 8 131 Zach Shapiro '15
Claire Lockard '18
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges B 11 10 5 8 11 11 12 8 10 11 9 10 10 9 135 Michael Partridge '16
Sabrina Mcdonnell '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 B 12 8 8 11 9 8 DSQ 12 8 8 11 9 11 10 140 Ballard Blair '18 [1-10]
Julien Guiot '18 [11-14]
Katherine Xu '18 [1-10]
Lara Dienemann '18 [11-14]
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges A 9 13 13 13 12 9 9 13 13 14 12 13 12 12 167 Jessie Gordon '18
Annie Laird '16
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons A 14 14 12 14 13 13 10 14 14 13 10 7 8 11 167 Christine Reighley '15
Andrew Snodgrass '17
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons B 13 12 10 12 14 14 8 11 12 12 14 14 14 13 173 Regan Yeung '16
Shuwei Yu '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons11111111111111
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges22222222222222
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson44444444444444
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies55555555555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 166666666666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 277777777777777
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 388888888888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons99999999999999
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges1010101010101010101010101010
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson1111111111111111111111111111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies1212121212121212121212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 11717171717171717171717171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21818181818181818181818181818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 31919191919191919191919191919

Conditions — 09/13/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From E (86°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1022.8 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn* · N 14 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northeastern: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northeastern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at Northeastern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →