Harvard University '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 69.72 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.075 rating points from 346 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.69 (fleet 0.95) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 33–39 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 3–7 |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | — | 10–3 |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | — | 20–17 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | — | 0–12 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 33–39 against 34.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-11-07 | The Mike Horn Trophy | crew | 2.35 | 2.21 | 3–7 | 3.2 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 3.55 | 4.41 | 10–3 | 8.1 | +0.86 | 1.2 | 18% |
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | crew | 3.14 | 3.39 | 10–8 | 9.2 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2014-03-22 | Team Race Invitational | crew | 3.22 | 2.34 | 8–7 | 10.4 | −0.88 | 1.5 | 96% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | crew | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2–2 | 1.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2013-10-20 | Lane Trophy | crew | 1.84 | -1.16 | 0–12 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 6.9 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 8.7 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 10.8 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 9.8 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 8.7 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 9.7 | — |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 7.8 | — |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 6.5 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 7.9 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 5.4 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 8.3 | — |
| Central Series 1 | Crew | A | 12 | 8.6 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 13.6 | — |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 8.0 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 7.4 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 10.1 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 9.2 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Crew | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 4.4 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Lark Invitational Central Series #1 | Crew | B | 13 | 2.8 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 7.5 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 15 | 9.7 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | B | 12 | 10.1 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | C | 11 | 4.2 | — |
| Team Race Invitational | Crew | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Crew | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | B | 14 | 10.3 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Crew | A | 12 | 4.6 | — |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 17 | 8.6 | — |
| Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 9 | 4.7 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | C | 17 | 9.8 | — |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Crew | A | 6 | 1.3 | — |
| Harvard Invitational | Crew | A | 6 | 1.3 | — |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Crew | A | 11 | 8.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
