| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 10–2 |
| 2 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 9–3 |
| 3 | |
Tufts University | Jumbalaya | 6–6 |
| 4 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 5–7 |
| 5 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,709 team race matches sailed before 2013-10-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.375 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tufts University Jumbos | 1 | 10.52 school +0.20, home +0.36 | Charles Proctor / Elizabeth Keys 2.95 Willem Sandberg / Mara Porter 3.41 Ben Weigel / Hannah Duggan 3.54 | 90% | 10–2 (83%) | −0.8 |
| 2 | Boston College Eagles | 2 | 9.22 school +0.08 | Maxwell Simmons / Katherine Downey 3.08 Harry Koeppel / Shelby Hamilton Ryan Schmitz / Isabelle Salvaterra 2.64 | 68% | 9–3 (75%) | +0.8 |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbalaya | 3 | 8.31 school +0.20, home +0.36 | Scott Barbano / Sara Makaretz 2.55 Duncan Swain / Julie Pringle 3.07 Casey Gowrie / Natalie Danziger | 47% | 6–6 (50%) | +0.4 |
| 4 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 4 | 7.57 school +0.26 | Abby Preston / Samantha Bobo A. Tucker Atterbury / Tatiana Chiu Jonathan Pope / Beatrice Bellacosa | 32% | 5–7 (42%) | +1.1 |
| 5 | Harvard University Crimson | 5 | 6.56 | Ames Lyman / Emma Wheeler 1.84 Richard Bergsund / Olivia Kjorlien 2.36 Bennett Capozzi / Daniel Leichus 2.16 | 13% | 0–12 (0%) | −1.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 7.57 | 8.17 | 5–7 | 3.9 | +0.60 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2 | Boston College Eagles | 9.22 | 9.71 | 9–3 | 8.2 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbalaya | 8.31 | 8.51 | 6–6 | 5.6 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 1 | Tufts University Jumbos | 10.52 | 9.86 | 10–2 | 10.8 | −0.66 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 5 | Harvard University Crimson | 6.56 | 3.56 | 0–12 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abby Preston | Roger Williams University | 2.37 | 2.97 | 5–7 | 3.9 | +0.60 | 0.5 | 31% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | Roger Williams University | 2.31 | 2.91 | 5–7 | 3.9 | +0.60 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Jonathan Pope | Roger Williams University | 2.22 | 2.82 | 5–7 | 3.9 | +0.60 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Maxwell Simmons | Boston College | 3.08 | 3.58 | 9–3 | 8.2 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Harry Koeppel | Boston College | 3.15 | 3.64 | 9–3 | 8.2 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Ryan Schmitz | Boston College | 2.64 | 3.14 | 9–3 | 8.2 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 43% |
| Scott Barbano | Tufts University | 2.55 | 2.76 | 6–6 | 5.6 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Duncan Swain | Tufts University | 3.07 | 3.27 | 6–6 | 5.6 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Casey Gowrie | Tufts University | 1.83 | 2.04 | 6–6 | 5.6 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Charles Proctor | Tufts University | 2.95 | 2.30 | 10–2 | 10.8 | −0.66 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Willem Sandberg | Tufts University | 3.41 | 2.76 | 10–2 | 10.8 | −0.66 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Ben Weigel | Tufts University | 3.54 | 2.89 | 10–2 | 10.8 | −0.66 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Ames Lyman | Harvard University | 1.84 | -1.16 | 0–12 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Richard Bergsund | Harvard University | 2.36 | -0.64 | 0–12 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Bennett Capozzi | Harvard University | 2.16 | -0.84 | 0–12 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Eagles | Jumbalaya | Hawks | Crimson | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 6–2 | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 3–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbalaya | 6–2 | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Eagles | Jumbalaya | Hawks | Crimson | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 7–1 | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 2–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbalaya | 7–1 | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Eagles | Jumbalaya | Hawks | Crimson | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–5 | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 4–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbalaya | 3–5 | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–1 | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Harvard University Crimson | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbalaya | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbalaya | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Jumbalaya | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbalaya | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbalaya | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Jumbalaya | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Jumbalaya | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbalaya | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbalaya | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbalaya | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crimson | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Jumbalaya | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbalaya | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Ben Weigel '14 Charles Proctor '14 Willem Sandberg '14 |
Hannah Duggan '15 Elizabeth Keys '14 Mara Porter '14 |
|
Boston College | Eagles | Harry Koeppel '17 Maxwell Simmons '17 Ryan Schmitz '15 |
Shelby Hamilton '14 Katherine Downey '16 Isabelle Salvaterra '14 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbalaya | Casey Gowrie '16 Duncan Swain '15 Scott Barbano '17 |
Natalie Danziger '17 Julie Pringle '14 Sara Makaretz '14 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | A. Tucker Atterbury '16 Abby Preston '15 Jonathan Pope '17 |
Tatiana Chiu '17 Samantha Bobo '15 Beatrice Bellacosa '17 |
|
Harvard University | Crimson | Ames Lyman '14 Bennett Capozzi '17 Richard Bergsund '15 |
Emma Wheeler '17 Daniel Leichus '16 Olivia Kjorlien '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
