Tufts University '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 54.37 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 13 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.61 (fleet 3.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 38–13 (75%) as crew 11–7 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 13–5 | 11–7 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 10–2 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 15–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (48 matches) the record is 34–14 against 38.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 3.48 | 2.54 | 13–5 | 15.3 | −0.93 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | crew | 3.32 | 2.94 | 11–7 | 12.3 | −0.37 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2013-10-20 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 3.54 | 2.89 | 10–2 | 10.8 | −0.66 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.2 | 3.51 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Providence College Invite #2 | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.3 | 4.81 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.9 | 3.86 |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.0 | 3.33 |
| Chris Loder | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 3.34 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.6 | 4.38 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.8 | 3.63 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | A | 4 | 5.8 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Wellesley Invite | Crew | B | 5 | 2.8 | — |
| 72nd Oberg Trophy @ BU by NU | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.1 | 3.53 |
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Series T | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.6 | 3.33 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.5 | 2.61 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Crew | A | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.8 | 3.14 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.0 | 2.48 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.6 | 1.84 |
| Commonwealth Invite III | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.1 | 3.02 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 @ SRU | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.7 | 2.03 |
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.2 | 2.70 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.8 | 1.95 |
| Commonwealth Series | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | 1.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
