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Southern Series 7 @ SRU

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 27 17 44
2 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 39 44 83
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 50 41 91
4 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 32 65 97
5 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 57 41 98
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 62 47 109
7 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 67 64 131
8 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 90 67 157
9 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 78 83 161
10 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 101 85 186
11 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 89 108 197
12 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 88 118 206
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 6 3 1 3 1 1 6 1 1 4 27 Peter Pellegrini '12
Sarah Muzyka '12
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 4 2 4 1 2 6 3 2 2 6 32 Steven Pelissier '14
Adriana Kopp '12
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 2 5 2 8 3 2 5 5 6 1 39 Matthew Schon '11
Hayley Blundell '13
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 1 8 2 10 4 1 12 4 5 50 Cecilia Strombeck '11
Michael Yanagisawa '13
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 9 7 3 6 8 3 2 7 10 2 57 Timothy Scanlon '12
Michelle Hernandez '12
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 6 6 9 4 11 9 4 5 3 62 T. Max Bulger '13
Charlotte Welbourn '13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 12 8 9 10 5 5 4 3 3 8 67 Jacob Tronaas '12
Jessica Nelson '14
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 8 4 10 4 9 7 7 10 7 12 78 Ian Gilchrist '11
Julia Elizabeth Murphy '11
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 10 11 7 5 12 8 10 9 9 7 88 Angus Page '12 [1-4]
Molly Haley '13 [5-10]
Caroline Eisenmann '12 [1-4]
Tessa Young '?? [5-10]
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 1 9 11 11 7 9 8 11 12 10 89 Tyler Black '11
Emilija Schreck '13
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 7 10 5 7 11 10 12 6 11 11 90 Alexander Rudkin '14
Samantha Pilz '14
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 11 12 12 12 6 12 11 8 8 9 101 Zachary O'Brien '13
Kaitlin Young '13
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 1 2 17 Patrick Clancy '10
Mary Zeolla '13
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 11 3 4 1 7 5 1 6 1 41 Sky Adams '14 [1-4]
Emmett Weeks '14 [5-10]
Kristin Altreuter '14 [1-4]
Lauren Krumeich '11 [5-10]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 3 2 2 9 4 1 8 6 3 3 41 Peter Hughes '11
Sam Williams '12
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 5 8 8 2 2 3 4 3 2 7 44 Eric Decesar '11
Hope Dingeman '14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 5 5 7 6 6 1 5 4 4 47 Ben Weigel '14
Kathleen Kwasniak '14
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 6 7 10 8 7 5 2 7 7 5 64 William Simon '14
Ellen Kintz '13
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 8 3 6 5 8 4 7 9 9 6 65 Francis Meisenbach '??
Eva Williford '14
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 7 4 4 3 5 8 9 8 10 9 67 Ian Hollerbach '14 [1-4]
Richard Jordan '14 [5-10]
Megan Carlson '12 [1-4]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 9 6 7 10 11 11 6 10 5 8 83 Christopher Cason '11
Sarah Moore '11
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 11 9 9 6 9 9 10 4 8 10 85 Douglas Young '12
William Snyder '13
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 12 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 108 Marco Catipovic '14 [1-4]
Jesse Lang '14 [5-10]
Jesse Lang '14 [1-4]
Marco Catipovic '14 [5-10]
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 118 Noah Langholz '13 [1-10]
Lindsay Ballard '11 [1-4]
Maritza Ebling '12 [5-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs1133557799
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats224466881111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears335577991212
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears44668811111313
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green557799121211
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams11111313224466
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks66881111131322
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 1779912121133
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 288111113132244
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos991212113355
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts121211335577
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals131322446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs224466881111
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats335577991212
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears44668811111313
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears557799121211
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green66881111131322
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams121211335577
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks779912121133
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 188111113132244
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 2991212113355
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos11111313224466
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts131322446688
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Amherst College Amherst College Tyler Black '11 Emilija Schreck '13
Lord Jeffs Marco Catipovic '14 [1-4]
Jesse Lang '14 [5-10]		 Jesse Lang '14 [1-4]
Marco Catipovic '14 [5-10]
Bates College Bates College Ian Gilchrist '11 Julia Elizabeth Murphy '11
Bobcats Christopher Cason '11 Sarah Moore '11
Brown University Brown University Cecilia Strombeck '11 Michael Yanagisawa '13
Bears Sky Adams '14 [1-4]
Emmett Weeks '14 [5-10]		 Kristin Altreuter '14 [1-4]
Lauren Krumeich '11 [5-10]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Timothy Scanlon '12 Michelle Hernandez '12
Big Green Peter Hughes '11 Sam Williams '12
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Alexander Rudkin '14 Samantha Pilz '14
Hawks Ian Hollerbach '14 [1-4]
Richard Jordan '14 [5-10]		 Megan Carlson '12 [1-4]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Matthew Schon '11 Hayley Blundell '13
Seahawks 1 Eric Decesar '11 Hope Dingeman '14
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Peter Pellegrini '12 Sarah Muzyka '12
Seahawks 2 Patrick Clancy '10 Mary Zeolla '13
Tufts University Tufts University T. Max Bulger '13 Charlotte Welbourn '13
Jumbos Ben Weigel '14 Kathleen Kwasniak '14
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Jacob Tronaas '12 Jessica Nelson '14
Bears William Simon '14 Ellen Kintz '13
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Zachary O'Brien '13 Kaitlin Young '13
Rams Douglas Young '12 William Snyder '13
University of Vermont University of Vermont Steven Pelissier '14 Adriana Kopp '12
Catamounts Francis Meisenbach '?? Eva Williford '14
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Angus Page '12 [1-4]
Molly Haley '13 [5-10]		 Caroline Eisenmann '12 [1-4]
Tessa Young '?? [5-10]
Cardinals Noah Langholz '13 [1-10] Lindsay Ballard '11 [1-4]
Maritza Ebling '12 [5-10]

Conditions — 04/30/2011 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1017.1 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From NNW (328°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1017.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn · NE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Salve Regina: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Salve Regina by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (43 labelled days at Salve Regina).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →