University of Vermont '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.94 (fleet 2.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–27 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 8–3 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 14–8 against 10.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 3.53 | 4–2 | 3.3 | +0.65 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.84 | 3.76 | 4–1 | 3.2 | +0.91 | 0.5 | 39% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.43 | 3.45 | 6–5 | 3.9 | +1.02 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 2.88 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 7.8 | 2.38 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.8 | 2.54 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.3 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.5 | 2.86 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.1 | 2.87 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.3 | 3.10 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 19 | 17.3 | 1.25 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 2.98 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.4 | 3.61 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.4 | 3.68 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.8 | 3.44 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 3.04 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 11.8 | 2.21 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.5 | 2.79 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.1 | 1.75 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 2.72 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.4 | 2.42 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.4 | 3.27 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 9.2 | 2.58 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.5 | 1.66 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.2 | 3.30 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.8 | 0.00 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Nicholas J. Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.2 | 2.23 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 17.2 | 0.49 |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.8 | 2.02 |
| Commonwealth Series | Skipper | B | 17 | 3.1 | 2.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
