Graham Hall Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/02/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	20–2
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	17–5
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	17–6
4	Boston College	Eagles	16–7
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	14–8
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–10
7	Tufts University	Jumbos	11–11
8	University of South Florida	Bulls	11–11
9	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	13–9
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	12–10
11	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	10–12
12	University of Vermont	Catamounts	7–15
13	Washington College	Shoremen	6–16
14	Eckerd College	Tritons	5–17
15	University of Virginia	Wahoos	4–18
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	2–20

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 133 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 137 of 177 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.516 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	18.35 school +0.13	Ben Spector / Alicia Blumenthal 5.58 Mac Mace / Corinna Decollibus 5.53 Juan Maegli / Septima Mcadams 17–2 Juan Maegli / Brooks Clark 3–0	88%	20–2 (91%)	+0.6
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6	15.58 school −0.10	John Wallace / Ainsley Thomson 4.84 10–4 Joshua Greenslade / Mayumi Roller 8–4 Joshua Greenslade / Ben Lezin 9–1 Fletcher Sims / Kayla Mccomb 4.25 5–4 John Wallace / Kayla Mccomb 4.96 7–1 Jacob La Dow / Mayumi Roller 4.95 6–1 Jacob La Dow / Kayla Mccomb 4.39 4–0 Fletcher Sims / Mayumi Roller 5.41 2–0	54%	17–5 (77%)	+5.2
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	18.13 school +0.24	Nevin Snow / Victoria Lynch 6.15 Alex Post / Katia Dasilva 4.88 Chris Barnard / Hilary Kenyon 6.17 11–6 Chris Barnard / Katie Olsen 5.33 6–0	86%	17–6 (74%)	−2.8
4	Boston College Eagles	3	17.19 school −0.31	William Bailey / Molly Clarke 5.58 Alex Cook / Laura Mckenna 5.56 14–7 Raul Rios / Patrick Hession 5.87 12–3 Maximiliano Agnese / Patrick Hession 5.36 3–4 Maximiliano Agnese / Laura Mckenna 5.45 2–0 Alex Cook / Patrick Hession 5.71 1–0	72%	16–7 (70%)	−0.5
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	11	15.44 school +0.10, home +-0.34	Taylor Vann / Alexandra Asuncion 4.86 Devin Laviano / Elizabeth Morrison 4.80 Michael Grove / Jocelynn Knudsen 5.05	46%	14–8 (64%)	+4.0
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	4	16.77	Alec Anderson / Alyssa Seifert William Macdonald / Bianca Rom 4.27 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 4.83	72%	12–10 (55%)	−3.8
7	Tufts University Jumbos	5	16.35 school −0.12	William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 5.50 William Hutchings / Kathleen Kwasniak 5.23 David Liebenberg / Sam Madden 4.95	63%	11–11 (50%)	−2.9
8	University of South Florida Bulls	12	15.26 school −0.11	Will Stocke / Emily Johnson 4.02 Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 5.09 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 4.69	43%	11–11 (50%)	+1.6
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	14.20	Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner Zach Runci / Jill Fattibene Dillon Paiva / Chloe Constants 11–7 Dillon Paiva / Cooper Paiva 2–2	50%	13–9 (59%)	+2.1
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	10	13.70	Johnny Norfleet / Bridget Nannig Eddie Cox / Catherine Pelo William Godfrey / Jane Rew	47%	12–10 (55%)	+1.6
11	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	9	13.86	Harry Scott / Emma Lamontagne Tyler Steel / Paige Conlin Nick Valente / Whitney Taylor	49%	10–12 (45%)	−0.8
12	University of Vermont Catamounts	7	14.24 school +0.15	Michael Zonnenberg / Bridget Murphy 6–14 Nate Jermain / Catherine Mitchell 3.96 6–12 Michael Booker / Lauren Jones 4.32 4–8 Steven Pelissier / Lauren Jones 3.48 3–7 Michael Booker / Catherine Mitchell 3.48 1–3 Steven Pelissier / Bridget Murphy 4.81 1–1	51%	7–15 (32%)	−4.3
13	Washington College Shoremen	14	11.93	Sam Fitzgerald / Blair Towers Ryan Bailey / Matt Lawler Samuel Bedinger / Margaret Smith 6–15 Samuel Bedinger / Alexandra Crawford 0–1	25%	6–16 (27%)	+0.6
14	Eckerd College Tritons	13	13.08 school −0.20	Wesley Byrne / Jessica Resnick 4.70 Walker Banks / Amanda Smith 3.52 Tony Collins / Ann Williamson 3.88	40%	5–17 (23%)	−3.7
15	University of Virginia Wahoos	15	10.33	Gordon Wolcott / Ellen Hubbard Christopher Stessing / Caitlin Grumbling Samuel Patterson / Sarah Hendrickson 2–11 Samuel Patterson / Hannah Varden 2–7	10%	4–18 (18%)	+1.8
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	16	8.37	Benjamin Kennady / Daniela Perrigo Collin Weston / Brittney Crawford 2–19 Nicholas Chong / Sara Stafford 2–15 Nicholas Chong / Michael Sager 0–3 Michael Sager / Sara Stafford 0–2 Michael Sager / Brittney Crawford 0–1	2%	2–20 (9%)	+1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	8.37	10.51	2–20	0.5	+2.13	2.7	6%
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	15.58	17.30	17–5	11.8	+1.71	6.3	<1%
15	University of Virginia	10.33	11.83	4–18	2.2	+1.50	2.2	8%
5	U. S. Naval Academy	15.44	16.73	14–8	10.0	+1.29	3.7	2%
9	Old Dominion University	14.20	15.02	13–9	10.9	+0.82	1.2	16%
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	13.70	14.33	12–10	10.4	+0.62	0.7	25%
8	University of South Florida	15.26	15.77	11–11	9.4	+0.51	0.6	26%
1	College of Charleston	18.35	18.70	20–2	19.4	+0.35	0.1	51%
13	Washington College	11.93	12.25	6–16	5.4	+0.32	0.1	45%
4	Boston College	17.19	16.99	16–7	16.5	−0.20	0.1	74%
11	SUNY Maritime College	13.86	13.59	10–12	10.8	−0.27	0.2	78%
3	Georgetown University	18.13	17.11	17–6	19.8	−1.02	2.2	98%
7	Tufts University	16.35	15.32	11–11	13.9	−1.03	2.2	98%
6	Roger Williams University	16.77	15.50	12–10	15.8	−1.27	3.5	99%
12	University of Vermont	14.24	12.64	7–15	11.3	−1.60	4.7	>99%
14	Eckerd College	13.08	11.35	5–17	8.7	−1.73	4.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Nicholas Chong	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.01	3.15	2–18	0.5	+2.14	2.7	6%
Collin Weston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.20	4.33	2–19	0.5	+2.13	2.7	6%
Benjamin Kennady	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.11	4.25	2–20	0.5	+2.13	2.7	6%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.95	6.85	10–1	7.5	+1.90	3.0	6%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	5.31	7.02	17–5	11.8	+1.71	6.3	<1%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.84	6.55	17–5	11.8	+1.71	6.3	<1%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.25	5.87	7–4	4.3	+1.62	3.3	4%
Gordon Wolcott	University of Virginia	3.77	5.27	4–18	2.2	+1.50	2.2	8%
Christopher Stessing	University of Virginia	2.73	4.23	4–18	2.2	+1.50	2.2	8%
Samuel Patterson	University of Virginia	0.94	2.44	4–18	2.2	+1.50	2.2	8%
Taylor Vann	U. S. Naval Academy	4.86	6.16	14–8	10.0	+1.29	3.7	2%
Devin Laviano	U. S. Naval Academy	4.80	6.10	14–8	10.0	+1.29	3.7	2%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	5.05	6.34	14–8	10.0	+1.29	3.7	2%
Dillon Paiva	Old Dominion University	4.24	5.06	13–9	10.9	+0.82	1.2	16%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	4.03	4.84	13–9	10.9	+0.82	1.2	16%
Zach Runci	Old Dominion University	2.97	3.79	13–9	10.9	+0.82	1.2	16%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.22	3.84	12–10	10.4	+0.62	0.7	25%
William Godfrey	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.09	3.71	12–10	10.4	+0.62	0.7	25%
Will Stocke	University of South Florida	4.02	4.53	11–11	9.4	+0.51	0.6	26%
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	5.09	5.61	11–11	9.4	+0.51	0.6	26%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	4.69	5.20	11–11	9.4	+0.51	0.6	26%
Ben Spector	College of Charleston	5.58	5.93	20–2	19.4	+0.35	0.1	51%
Juan Maegli	College of Charleston	6.18	6.53	20–2	19.4	+0.35	0.1	51%
Mac Mace	College of Charleston	5.53	5.88	20–2	19.4	+0.35	0.1	51%
Samuel Bedinger	Washington College	2.36	2.68	6–16	5.4	+0.32	0.1	45%
Sam Fitzgerald	Washington College	3.35	3.68	6–16	5.4	+0.32	0.1	45%
Ryan Bailey	Washington College	3.15	3.48	6–16	5.4	+0.32	0.1	45%
William Bailey	Boston College	5.58	5.39	16–7	16.5	−0.20	0.1	74%
Alex Cook	Boston College	5.56	5.36	15–7	15.5	−0.20	0.1	74%
Harry Scott	SUNY Maritime College	3.94	3.66	10–12	10.8	−0.27	0.2	78%
Tyler Steel	SUNY Maritime College	3.40	3.12	10–12	10.8	−0.27	0.2	78%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.40	3.13	10–12	10.8	−0.27	0.2	78%
Raul Rios	Boston College	5.87	5.15	12–3	13.2	−0.72	0.6	92%
Chris Barnard	Georgetown University	6.17	5.15	17–6	19.8	−1.02	2.2	98%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	6.15	5.13	17–6	19.8	−1.02	2.2	98%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	4.88	3.86	17–6	19.8	−1.02	2.2	98%
William Haeger	Tufts University	5.50	4.47	11–11	13.9	−1.03	2.2	98%
William Hutchings	Tufts University	5.23	4.20	11–11	13.9	−1.03	2.2	98%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	4.95	3.93	11–11	13.9	−1.03	2.2	98%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	5.09	3.83	6–14	9.3	−1.26	2.9	99%
Alec Anderson	Roger Williams University	6.10	4.83	12–10	15.8	−1.27	3.5	99%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	4.27	3.00	12–10	15.8	−1.27	3.5	99%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	4.83	3.56	12–10	15.8	−1.27	3.5	99%
Steven Pelissier	University of Vermont	3.48	1.94	4–8	6.1	−1.55	2.4	99%
Wesley Byrne	Eckerd College	4.70	2.96	5–17	8.7	−1.73	4.4	>99%
Walker Banks	Eckerd College	3.52	1.78	5–17	8.7	−1.73	4.4	>99%
Tony Collins	Eckerd College	3.88	2.15	5–17	8.7	−1.73	4.4	>99%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	3.96	2.16	6–12	9.9	−1.80	4.9	>99%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	4.32	2.40	5–11	8.5	−1.91	4.4	>99%
Michael Sager	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.52	-0.48	0–3	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	28%	upset
1	2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eckerd College	21%	upset
1	3	Boston College	Tufts University	76%
1	4	SUNY Maritime College	Washington College	87%
1	5	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	98%
1	6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	93%
1	7	Boston College	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	8	Tufts University	Washington College	100%
1	9	Roger Williams University	Eckerd College	97%
1	10	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	78%
1	11	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	97%
1	12	Roger Williams University	Washington College	100%
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	92%
1	14	Boston College	Eckerd College	99%
1	15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Washington College	85%
1	16	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	59%
1	17	SUNY Maritime College	Eckerd College	54%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	98%
1	19	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	98%
1	20	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	21	Eckerd College	Washington College	78%
1	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	31%	upset
1	23	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	46%	upset
1	24	Roger Williams University	Boston College	36%	upset
1	25	Tufts University	Eckerd College	96%
1	26	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	91%
1	27	Boston College	Washington College	100%
1	28	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	93%
1	29	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	83%
1	30	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	91%
1	31	Roger Williams University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	32	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Vermont	96%
1	33	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	98%
1	34	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	35	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	99%
1	36	University of Vermont	Eckerd College	47%	upset
1	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	38	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	39	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	97%
1	40	Eckerd College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	92%
1	42	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Vermont	64%
1	43	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	59%
1	44	Old Dominion University	Eckerd College	51%
1	45	Georgetown University	Tufts University	78%
1	46	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	46%	upset
1	47	Boston College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	48	Tufts University	University of Vermont	93%
1	49	Georgetown University	Washington College	100%
1	50	SUNY Maritime College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	51	Old Dominion University	Boston College	3%	upset
1	52	University of Vermont	Washington College	87%
1	53	Tufts University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	54	SUNY Maritime College	Georgetown University	2%	upset
1	55	Boston College	University of Vermont	97%
1	56	Washington College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	57	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	92%
1	58	University of Vermont	SUNY Maritime College	49%	upset
1	59	Georgetown University	Boston College	77%
1	60	Old Dominion University	Washington College	88%
1	61	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	2%	upset
1	62	University of Vermont	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	63	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
1	64	University of South Florida	University of Virginia	100%
1	65	Georgetown University	University of Vermont	98%
1	66	Old Dominion University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	67	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	97%
1	68	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Virginia	100%
1	69	Georgetown University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	70	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	98%
1	71	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Vermont	57%
1	72	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	100%
1	73	University of South Florida	Old Dominion University	40%	upset
1	74	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	75	University of Virginia	University of Vermont	1%	upset
1	76	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	97%
1	77	University of South Florida	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	78	Old Dominion University	University of Virginia	99%
1	79	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	96%
1	80	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	98%
1	81	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Virginia	27%	upset
1	82	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	68%
1	83	University of South Florida	University of Vermont	52%
1	84	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	38%	upset
1	85	U. S. Naval Academy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	86	Old Dominion University	University of Vermont	41%	upset
1	87	College of Charleston	University of Virginia	100%
1	88	University of South Florida	U. S. Naval Academy	45%	upset
1	89	College of Charleston	Tufts University	86%
1	90	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	73%
1	91	Boston College	University of Virginia	100%
1	92	Tufts University	University of South Florida	81%
1	93	College of Charleston	Washington College	100%
1	94	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	98%
1	95	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	90%
1	96	University of South Florida	Washington College	94%
1	97	Tufts University	University of Virginia	100%
1	98	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	99	Boston College	University of South Florida	91%
1	100	Washington College	University of Virginia	92%
1	101	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	23%	upset
1	102	University of South Florida	SUNY Maritime College	69%
1	103	College of Charleston	Boston College	81%
1	104	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	94%
1	105	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	6%	upset
1	106	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	81%
1	107	Roger Williams University	University of Virginia	100%
1	108	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	50%
1	109	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	99%
1	110	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Virginia	97%
1	111	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	20%	upset
1	112	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	90%
1	113	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Virginia	99%
1	114	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	99%
1	115	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	82%
1	116	University of Virginia	Eckerd College	8%	upset
1	117	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	50%
1	118	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
1	119	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	75%
1	120	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	91%
1	121	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	7%	upset
1	122	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	69%
1	123	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	14%	upset
1	124	Tufts University	University of South Florida	71%
1	125	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	54%
1	126	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	30%	upset
1	127	Boston College	Tufts University	73%
1	128	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	51%
1	129	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	75%
1	130	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	66%
1	131	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
1	132	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	95%
1	133	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	36%	upset
1	134	Boston College	Roger Williams University	59%
1	135	University of South Florida	Georgetown University	6%	upset
1	136	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
1	137	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	34%	upset
1	138	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	51%
1	139	Boston College	Georgetown University	17%	upset
1	140	College of Charleston	Tufts University	90%
1	141	University of South Florida	Roger Williams University	19%	upset
1	142	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	52%
1	143	Georgetown University	Tufts University	80%
1	144	College of Charleston	Boston College	85%
1	145	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
1	146	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	90%
1	147	Boston College	University of South Florida	86%
1	148	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	31%	upset
1	149	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	64%
1	150	University of Vermont	SUNY Maritime College	56%
1	151	Washington College	Eckerd College	32%	upset
1	152	University of Virginia	Texas A&M University at Galveston	88%
1	153	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	40%	upset
1	154	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Vermont	41%	upset
1	155	Eckerd College	University of Virginia	92%
1	156	Washington College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	97%
1	157	Old Dominion University	University of Vermont	43%	upset
1	158	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eckerd College	74%
1	159	SUNY Maritime College	Washington College	87%
1	160	Old Dominion University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	161	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Virginia	97%
1	162	Eckerd College	University of Vermont	19%	upset
1	163	SUNY Maritime College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	164	Washington College	Old Dominion University	8%	upset
1	165	University of Vermont	University of Virginia	95%
1	166	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	167	SUNY Maritime College	Eckerd College	78%
1	168	Old Dominion University	University of Virginia	98%
1	169	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of Vermont	0%	upset
1	170	Washington College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	14%	upset
1	171	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	97%
1	172	Old Dominion University	Eckerd College	85%
1	173	University of Vermont	Washington College	89%
1	174	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	46%	upset
1	175	Eckerd College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	176	University of Virginia	Washington College	15%	upset
1	177	Georgetown University	Boston College	83%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Seahawks	Hoyas	Eagles	Midshipmen	Hawks	Jumbos	Bulls	Monarchs	Statesmen	Privateers	Catamounts	Shoremen	Tritons	Wahoos	Aggies
College of Charleston Cougars	20–2	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	17–5	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	17–6	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	16–7	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	14–8	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	12–10	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	11–11	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	11–11	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	13–9	L	L	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	12–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	10–12	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	7–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	L
Washington College Shoremen	6–16	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	5–17	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	4–18	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	2–20	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
2	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
3	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
4	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
5	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
6	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
7	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
8	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
9	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
10	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
11	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
12	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
13	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
14	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Tritons	1-4-6
15	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
16	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
17	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
18	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
19	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
20	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
21	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
22	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
23	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
24	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
25	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
26	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
27	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Shoremen	2-4-6
28	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
30	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
31	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
32	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
34	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
35	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
36	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
37	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
38	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
39	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
40	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
41	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
42	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
43	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
44	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
45	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
46	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
48	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
49	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
50	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
51	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
52	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Shoremen	3-4-5
53	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
54	Privateers	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
55	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
56	Shoremen	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
57	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
58	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
59	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
60	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
61	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
62	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
63	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
64	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
65	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
66	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
67	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
68	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
69	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
70	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
71	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
72	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
73	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
74	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
75	Wahoos	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
76	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
77	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
78	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
79	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
80	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
81	Aggies	2-3-5	def.	Wahoos	1-4-6
82	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
83	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
84	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
85	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
86	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
87	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
88	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
89	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
90	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
91	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
92	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
93	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
94	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
95	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
96	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
97	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
98	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
99	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
100	Shoremen	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
101	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
102	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
103	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
104	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
105	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
106	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
107	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
108	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
109	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
110	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
111	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
112	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
113	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
114	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
115	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
116	Wahoos	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
117	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
118	Bulls	3-4-5	def.	Statesmen	1-2-6 DNF
119	Cougars	1-5-6	def.	Hawks	2-3-4 DNF
120	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
121	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
122	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
123	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
124	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
125	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
126	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
127	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
128	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
129	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
130	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
131	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
132	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
133	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
134	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
135	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
136	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
137	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
138	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
139	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
140	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
141	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
142	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
143	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
144	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
145	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
146	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
147	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
148	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6 DNS
149	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
150	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
151	Shoremen	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
152	Wahoos	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
153	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
154	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
155	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Wahoos	3-4-5
156	Shoremen	2-3-4	def.	Aggies	1-5-6
157	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
158	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
159	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
160	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
161	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
162	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
163	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
164	Shoremen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
165	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
166	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
167	Privateers	2-3-5	def.	Tritons	1-4-6
168	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
169	Aggies	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
170	Shoremen	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
171	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
172	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
173	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
174	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Privateers	1-4-6
175	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
176	Wahoos	1-3-6	def.	Shoremen	2-4-5
177	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6 DNF

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Ben Spector '13 Juan Maegli '13 Mac Mace '13	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Brooks Clark '13 Septima Mcadams '16 Corinna Decollibus '13
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 Jacob La Dow '15 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Kayla Mccomb '13 Mayumi Roller '13 Ainsley Thomson '13 Ben Lezin '13
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Chris Barnard '13 Nevin Snow '16	Katia Dasilva '15 Katie Olsen '15 Hilary Kenyon '13 Victoria Lynch '13
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Cook '13 Maximiliano Agnese '16 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Laura Mckenna '13 Patrick Hession '13 Molly Clarke '13
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Devin Laviano '13 Michael Grove '14 Taylor Vann '13	Elizabeth Morrison '14 Jocelynn Knudsen '13 Alexandra Asuncion '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Alec Anderson '13 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Alyssa Seifert '13 Wendy Reuss '15 Bianca Rom '13
Tufts University	Jumbos	David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14 William Hutchings '13	Sam Madden '15 Paula Grasberger '14 Kathleen Kwasniak '14
University of South Florida	Bulls	Christopher Stocke '15 Fernando Monllor '16 Will Stocke '13	Ali Yarbrough '16 Rebecca Campbell '16 Emily Johnson '13
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dillon Paiva '13 Esteban Forrer '16 Zach Runci '13	Chloe Constants '14 Cooper Paiva '16 Julia Wiesner '14 Jill Fattibene '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Johnny Norfleet '13 William Godfrey '16	Catherine Pelo '13 Bridget Nannig '13 Jane Rew '14
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Harry Scott '13 Nick Valente '16 Tyler Steel '13	Emma Lamontagne '14 Whitney Taylor '16 Paige Conlin '14
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15 Nate Jermain '15 Steven Pelissier '14	Catherine Mitchell '14 Lauren Jones '15 Bridget Murphy '15
Washington College	Shoremen	Ryan Bailey '15 Sam Fitzgerald '14 Samuel Bedinger '13	Matt Lawler '13 Blair Towers '15 Margaret Smith '13 Alexandra Crawford '16
Eckerd College	Tritons	Tony Collins '15 Walker Banks '14 Wesley Byrne '13	Ann Williamson '15 Amanda Smith '15 Jessica Resnick '16
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Christopher Stessing '14 Gordon Wolcott '13 Samuel Patterson '16	Caitlin Grumbling '16 Ellen Hubbard '14 Hannah Varden '15 Sarah Hendrickson '16
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Benjamin Kennady '13 Collin Weston '13 Michael Sager '15 Nicholas Chong '13	Daniela Perrigo '14 Brittney Crawford '15 Sara Stafford '15 Michael Sager '15

Conditions — 03/02/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1010.7 hPa

Temperature

36°F

↑ 38°F ↓ 31°F

Feels like 27°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.5 kn

avg · max 10.3 kn

Gusts to 17.3 kn

From NW (317°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover78% Sunshine5.3 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1010.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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