Eckerd College '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.31 (fleet 3.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–46 (19%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 11–46 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (8 matches) the record is 1–7 against 0.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-13 | SAISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.26 | 3.68 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.5 | 2.63 |
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.4 | 3.24 |
| SAISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| SAISA Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.5 | 3.42 |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 2.96 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 23% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 22% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| SAISA Fall Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.8 | 2.63 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | 3.87 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.0 | 2.57 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.1 | 3.10 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.7 | 2.64 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 2.91 |
| SAISA Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 2.91 |
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 2.57 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.9 | 2.85 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.2 | 3.28 |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.4 | 2.43 |
| ICSA Coed Dinghy Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.3 | 3.07 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
