| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 4–4 |
| 3 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,434 team race matches sailed before 2013-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.403 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.20 ± 0.47: a typical event, more orderly than 23% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston Cougars | 1 | 12.37 | Ben Spector / Alicia Blumenthal 3.90 Juan Maegli / Septima Mcadams 4.55 Mac Mace / Corinna Decollibus 3.87 | 92% | 7–1 (88%) | −0.4 |
| 2 | University of South Florida Bulls | 2 | 10.22 | Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.95 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.26 Benjamin Mohney / Emily Johnson 3.26 1–3 Aj Degen / Emily Johnson 3–1 | 49% | 4–4 (50%) | +0.1 |
| 3 | Eckerd College Tritons | 3 | 8.25 school −0.49, home +0.35 | Wesley Byrne / Jessica Resnick 3.26 Walker Banks / Amanda Smith 2.48 Robert Savoie / Erik Brydges 2.62 | 9% | 1–7 (12%) | +0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Eckerd College | 8.25 | 8.67 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2 | University of South Florida | 10.22 | 10.31 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 1 | College of Charleston | 12.37 | 11.79 | 7–1 | 7.4 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 88% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Mohney | University of South Florida | 3.26 | 3.98 | 1–3 | 0.6 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 45% |
| Wesley Byrne | Eckerd College | 3.26 | 3.68 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Walker Banks | Eckerd College | 2.48 | 2.90 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Robert Savoie | Eckerd College | 2.62 | 3.03 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.42 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Christopher Stocke | University of South Florida | 3.95 | 4.03 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Fernando Monllor | University of South Florida | 3.26 | 3.35 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Aj Degen | University of South Florida | 2.61 | 2.06 | 3–1 | 3.4 | −0.55 | 0.1 | 88% |
| Ben Spector | College of Charleston | 3.90 | 3.33 | 7–1 | 7.4 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 88% |
| Juan Maegli | College of Charleston | 4.55 | 3.98 | 7–1 | 7.4 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 88% |
| Mac Mace | College of Charleston | 3.87 | 3.30 | 7–1 | 7.4 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 88% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 0–2 | L | ✕ | L |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 1–1 | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 1–1 | ✕ | L | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–0 | W | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Bulls | Tritons | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Tritons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Ben Spector '13 Juan Maegli '13 Mac Mace '13 |
Alicia Blumenthal '15 Septima Mcadams '16 Corinna Decollibus '13 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Aj Degen '16 Benjamin Mohney '15 Christopher Stocke '15 Fernando Monllor '16 |
Emily Johnson '13 Ali Yarbrough '16 Rebecca Campbell '16 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Robert Savoie '14 Walker Banks '14 Wesley Byrne '13 |
Erik Brydges '14 Amanda Smith '15 Jessica Resnick '16 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
