SUNY Maritime College '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.52 (fleet 3.47) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 33–31 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 33–31 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 6–8 against 4.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.54 | 4.15 | 6–8 | 4.7 | +0.61 | 0.6 | 28% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.8 | 2.53 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.8 | 3.84 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.9 | 3.28 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.7 | 3.33 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.2 | 3.63 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.9 | 3.00 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.5 | 3.50 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 3.38 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 19 | 9.6 | 2.86 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.8 | 3.26 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.8 | 2.66 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.8 | 3.20 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.3 | 3.17 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 12.9 | 2.43 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.2 | 2.14 |
| North Fall 1 | Skipper | B | 14 | 2.7 | 3.75 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 11.2 | 2.53 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.1 | 2.26 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 19 | 14.0 | 2.10 |
| Maisa Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.8 | 2.86 |
| ICSA Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | 2.88 |
| ICSA/Gill Coed Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.4 | 2.73 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.8 | 2.88 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.4 | 2.12 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 9.8 | 2.90 |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 2.65 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.7 | 1.59 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
