St. Mary's College of Maryland '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 4.90 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.101 rating points from 52 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.95 (fleet 4.06) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 124–57 (69%) as crew 5–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 81–33 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 6 | 43–24 | 5–0 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (147 matches) the record is 107–40 against 96.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+10.1). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.95 | 4.39 | 18–7 | 16.2 | +0.44 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.86 | 4.23 | 18–3 | 17.3 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.99 | 5.28 | 16–5 | 10.8 | +1.29 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 4.13 | 4.10 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 4.07 | 3.68 | 9–5 | 10.0 | −0.39 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 4.17 | 3.67 | 9–9 | 10.8 | −0.50 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.79 | 4.83 | 12–4 | 9.2 | +1.04 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.89 | 4.17 | 9–3 | 8.6 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | crew | 3.89 | 6.89 | 5–0 | 3.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 8% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.7 | 3.65 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.9 | 3.99 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.6 | 4.84 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 25 | 72% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.7 | 4.08 |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 76% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.1 | 4.65 |
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 4.7 | 4.75 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.6 | 3.59 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 7.5 | 4.00 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 4.40 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.5 | 4.51 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 77% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.4 | 3.83 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 23 | 70% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.1 | 3.80 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.0 | 3.39 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Crew | A | 14 | 8.5 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 3.47 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.4 | 3.17 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 2.97 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | 3.75 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.0 | 3.65 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.2 | 2.87 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | B | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.8 | 2.79 |
| Navy Fall | Crew | A, B | 4 | 7.0 | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.2 | 3.05 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.7 | 2.47 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Crew | A | 11 | 10.4 | — |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | A | 4 | 12.8 | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.8 | 2.55 |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Crew | B | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1/ Senators Cup | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.2 | 2.62 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A, B | 6 | 11.2 | — |
| Navy Fall | Crew | B | 12 | 6.8 | — |
| Maisa Central Qualifier | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.2 | 2.50 |
| HWS Intersectional | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.3 | 2.50 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
