Prosser Trophy

HostNavy
Date04/05/2014
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	18–3
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	17–4
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	15–6
4	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	10–11
5	Fordham University	Rams	10–11
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	6–15
7	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	4–17
8	Cornell University	Big Red	4–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,412 team race matches sailed before 2014-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 66 of 84 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.486 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.30 ± 0.20: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 19% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	11.61 school +0.60	Joshua Greenslade / Nicole Deangeli 3.87 16–2 John Wallace / Allison Shane 3.25 16–2 Fletcher Sims / Thad Bench 3.86 7–2 Fletcher Sims / Greer Wattson 3.85 8–1 Joshua Greenslade / Greer Wattson 3.73 2–1 John Wallace / Kelley Merryman 3.19 2–1 Fletcher Sims / Kelley Merryman 3.96 3–0	82%	18–3 (86%)	+0.7
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	11.74	Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 4.73 Alex Post / Katie Olsen 3.61 12–3 Sean Golden / Jack Gerli 3.36 11–4 Alex Post / Isabelle Teare 3.56 5–1 Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.44 3–0 Sean Golden / Eliana Michaels 3.40 3–0	85%	17–4 (81%)	−0.8
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	11.35 school +0.12, home +0.37	Mary Hall / Charles Peck 3.66 Michael Grove / Elizabeth Morrison 3.75 11–4 Michael Popp / Connor Hendi 3.39 10–5 Patrick Snow / Connor Hendi 3.24 2–1 Michael Grove / Aaron Hull 3.75 1–2 Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 3.83 3–0 Michael Popp / Chelsea Smith 3.43 3–0	79%	15–6 (71%)	−1.6
4	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	8.55 school −0.28	Jacob Spracher / Chloe Constants 2.60 Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 3.42 6–9 Daniel Lochner / Colin Voigt 2.68 9–6 Joseph David / Colin Voigt 2.65 1–5 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.67 4–2	29%	10–11 (48%)	+4.0
5	Fordham University Rams	4	9.34 school +0.30	Will Holz / Emma Huntress 2.83 Connor Godfrey / Daniel Kraus 3.09 Alecsander Tayler / Connor Murphy 3.04	46%	10–11 (48%)	+0.2
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5	8.93 school +0.17	Eddie Cox / John Darby 3.14 3–12 William Godfrey / Alex Nugent 2.52 3–12 Elliott Morrill / Adam Schaefer 2.72 3–12 Eddie Cox / Allison Aughtry 3.07 3–3 William Godfrey / Jane Rew 2.83 3–3 Elliott Morrill / Julia Oak 3.11 3–3	35%	6–15 (29%)	−1.4
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8	7.55 school −0.62	Jack Swikart / Patricia Andrade 2.93 3–12 Maximiliano Agnese / Foster Collins 3.16 3–12 Joe Farned / Meaghan Harding 1.79 3–12 Jack Swikart / Foster Collins 2.85 1–5 Maximiliano Agnese / Catie Hopkins 3.41 1–5 Joe Farned / Patricia Andrade 1.83 1–5	12%	4–17 (19%)	+1.5
8	Cornell University Big Red	6	8.49 school +0.22	Duncan Howes / Claire Riedman 3.13 2–10 Matthew Schofield / Lindsey Ludwig 3.04 2–10 Collin Clark / Lindsay Gimple 1.49 2–10 Alex Woloshyn / Gregory Reppucci 2.63 2–7 Duncan Howes / Gregory Reppucci 3.19 2–7 Matthew Schofield / Alex Woloshyn 2.96 2–7	31%	4–17 (19%)	−2.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Old Dominion University	8.55	9.78	10–11	6.0	+1.23	3.5	2%
7	University of Pennsylvania	7.55	8.18	4–17	2.5	+0.63	0.7	22%
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.61	11.98	18–3	17.3	+0.37	0.2	45%
5	Fordham University	9.34	9.42	10–11	9.8	+0.08	0.0	56%
2	Georgetown University	11.74	11.38	17–4	17.8	−0.36	0.2	82%
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	8.93	8.48	6–15	7.4	−0.45	0.5	86%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	11.35	10.69	15–6	16.6	−0.66	0.8	92%
8	Cornell University	8.49	7.46	4–17	6.6	−1.04	1.9	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	2.65	4.06	1–5	0.3	+1.41	0.9	25%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.42	4.64	10–11	6.0	+1.23	3.5	2%
Jacob Spracher	Old Dominion University	2.60	3.82	10–11	6.0	+1.23	3.5	2%
Daniel Lochner	Old Dominion University	2.68	3.85	9–6	5.8	+1.17	2.7	5%
Collin Clark	Cornell University	1.49	2.51	2–10	0.9	+1.02	0.9	23%
Jack Swikart	University of Pennsylvania	2.93	3.56	4–17	2.5	+0.63	0.7	22%
Joe Farned	University of Pennsylvania	1.79	2.42	4–17	2.5	+0.63	0.7	22%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.86	4.23	18–3	17.3	+0.37	0.2	45%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.87	4.24	18–3	17.3	+0.37	0.2	45%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.25	3.62	18–3	17.3	+0.37	0.2	45%
Will Holz	Fordham University	2.83	2.92	10–11	9.8	+0.08	0.0	56%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.09	3.17	10–11	9.8	+0.08	0.0	56%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.04	3.12	10–11	9.8	+0.08	0.0	56%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.36	2.99	17–4	17.8	−0.36	0.2	82%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.61	3.25	17–4	17.8	−0.36	0.2	82%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.73	4.37	17–4	17.8	−0.36	0.2	82%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.39	3.02	13–5	13.8	−0.37	0.2	82%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.14	2.69	6–15	7.4	−0.45	0.5	86%
William Godfrey	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.52	2.06	6–15	7.4	−0.45	0.5	86%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.72	2.27	6–15	7.4	−0.45	0.5	86%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.75	3.09	15–6	16.6	−0.66	0.8	92%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.66	3.00	15–6	16.6	−0.66	0.8	92%
Duncan Howes	Cornell University	3.13	2.10	4–17	6.6	−1.04	1.9	97%
Matthew Schofield	Cornell University	3.04	2.00	4–17	6.6	−1.04	1.9	97%
Alex Woloshyn	Cornell University	2.63	0.63	2–7	5.7	−2.00	5.0	>99%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.24	1.20	2–1	2.8	−2.04	1.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
1	2	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	91%
1	4	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	15%	upset
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	94%
1	6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	95%
1	7	Georgetown University	Cornell University	98%
1	8	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	87%
1	9	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4%	upset
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	97%
1	11	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	64%
1	12	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	99%
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	97%
1	14	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	30%	upset
1	15	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	60%
1	16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	79%
1	17	Fordham University	Cornell University	79%
1	18	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	58%
1	19	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	43%	upset
1	20	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	21	Georgetown University	Fordham University	91%
1	22	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	54%
1	23	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
1	24	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	77%
1	25	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
1	26	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	89%
1	27	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	41%	upset
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	99%
2	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	93%
2	30	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	97%
2	31	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	91%
2	32	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	18%	upset
2	33	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	6%	upset
2	34	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
2	35	Georgetown University	Cornell University	98%
2	36	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	86%
2	37	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	96%
2	38	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	96%
2	39	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	62%
2	40	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
2	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	97%
2	42	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	30%	upset
2	43	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	60%
2	44	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	22%	upset
2	45	Fordham University	Cornell University	78%
2	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	42%	upset
2	47	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	59%
2	48	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	98%
2	49	Georgetown University	Fordham University	91%
2	50	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	53%
2	51	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
2	52	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	75%
2	53	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
2	54	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	89%
2	55	Old Dominion University	Cornell University	41%	upset
2	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	98%
3	57	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
3	58	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	97%
3	59	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	91%
3	60	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	81%
3	61	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	94%
3	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
3	63	Georgetown University	Cornell University	97%
3	64	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	85%
3	65	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	96%
3	66	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	96%
3	67	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	61%
3	68	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
3	69	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3%	upset
3	70	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	70%
3	71	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	40%	upset
3	72	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	78%
3	73	Cornell University	Fordham University	22%	upset
3	74	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	42%	upset
3	75	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	40%	upset
3	76	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	98%
3	77	Fordham University	Georgetown University	9%	upset
3	78	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	53%
3	79	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
3	80	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	26%	upset
3	81	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
3	82	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	89%
3	83	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	59%
3	84	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	98%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Rams	Statesmen	Quakers	Red
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Cornell University Big Red	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Rams	Statesmen	Quakers	Red
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Cornell University Big Red	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Rams	Statesmen	Quakers	Red
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	L
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L	L
Fordham University Rams	4–3	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L
Cornell University Big Red	4–3	W	L	L	W	W	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
2	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
3	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
4	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
5	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
6	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
7	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
8	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
9	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
10	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
11	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
12	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
13	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
14	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
15	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
16	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
17	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
19	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
20	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
21	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
22	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Big Red	2-3-6
23	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
24	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
25	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
26	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
27	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
30	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
31	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
32	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
33	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
34	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
35	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
36	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
37	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
38	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
39	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
40	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
41	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
42	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
43	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
44	Quakers	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
45	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
46	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
47	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
48	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
49	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
50	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
51	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
52	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
53	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
54	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
55	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
56	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
57	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
58	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
59	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
60	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
61	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
62	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
63	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
64	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
65	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
66	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
67	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
68	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
69	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
70	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
71	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
72	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
73	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
74	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
75	Monarchs	3-4-6	def.	Statesmen	1-2-5 DSQ
76	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
77	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
78	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
79	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
80	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
81	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
82	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
83	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
84	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Greer Wattson '17 Thad Bench '15 Kelley Merryman '14 Allison Shane '15 Nicole Deangeli '14
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Katie Olsen '15 Isabelle Teare '17 Katia Dasilva '15 Jack Gerli '17 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16 Eliana Michaels '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Grove '14 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Charles Peck '15 Elizabeth Morrison '14 Aaron Hull '16 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Connor Hendi '15 Chelsea Smith '14
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Daniel Lochner '15 Esteban Forrer '16 Jacob Spracher '15 Joseph David '16	Colin Voigt '15 Gabriel Smith '17 Julia Wiesner '14 Chloe Constants '14
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Connor Murphy '16 Daniel Kraus '17 Emma Huntress '16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 William Godfrey '16	John Darby '14 Allison Aughtry '16 Adam Schaefer '17 Julia Oak '14 Alex Nugent '15 Jane Rew '14
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Jack Swikart '15 Joe Farned '17 Maximiliano Agnese '16	Patricia Andrade '15 Foster Collins '16 Meaghan Harding '16 Catie Hopkins '17
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Woloshyn '17 Collin Clark '14 Duncan Howes '15 Matthew Schofield '17	Gregory Reppucci '15 Lindsay Gimple '17 Claire Riedman '16 Alex Woloshyn '17 Lindsey Ludwig '14

Conditions — 04/05/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 46% · Pressure 1014.6 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.8 kn

avg · max 12.2 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1014.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu