U. S. Naval Academy '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 11.75 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 13 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.06 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 58 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.91 (fleet 2.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–13 (46%) as crew 42–30 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 4–10 | 6–11 |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 7–3 | 24–13 |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | — | 12–6 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (78 matches) the record is 41–37 against 46.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | crew | 3.61 | 3.03 | 6–8 | 7.7 | −0.59 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2015-03-28 | MAISA/SAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.46 | 1.18 | 4–10 | 7.0 | −1.28 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 3.73 | 0.73 | 0–3 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | crew | 3.66 | 3.00 | 15–6 | 16.6 | −0.66 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 3.69 | 3.46 | 5–7 | 5.5 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 3.32 | 6.32 | 4–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 3.5 | 7% |
| 2014-03-01 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 3.29 | 7–3 | 6.1 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Crew | A | 2 | 8.5 | — |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.8 | 1.53 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| America Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 8.0 | — |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 12.8 | — |
| MAISA Laser Qualifier Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.5 | 2.00 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.3 | 2.25 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.0 | 3.15 |
| Central Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.4 | 2.53 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.2 | 3.44 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 18 | 4.4 | 0.72 |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.0 | 3.17 |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | B | 4 | 8.8 | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.8 | 2.52 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.7 | 1.62 |
| Central Fall #2 | Skipper | A, B | 10 | 4.5 | 1.93 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.4 | 0.75 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Crew | B | 2 | 7.5 | — |
| North 2 | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 2.64 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.8 | 2.49 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.2 | 1.50 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
