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Central Fall #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 16 18 34
2 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 26 23 49
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 42 41 83
4 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 34 53 87
5 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 56 42 98
6 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 57 50 107
7 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 54 57 111
8 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 68 65 133
9 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 58 92 150
10 Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 86 70 156
11 University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 98 88 186
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 1 1 4 1 1 3 1 1 16 Don Hause Iii '14
Kaitlyn Noreen '16
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 2 2 5 2 4 5 1 2 3 26 Gerard Tonachel '13
Anne Ryan '14
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 4 7 3 1 2 6 4 5 2 34 Samantha Gebb '14
Elizabeth Smith '14
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 3 4 6 3 4 6 3 8 42 Charles Peck '15
Alyson Eng '16
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 7 8 6 8 5 10 2 4 4 54 Zachary Schippe '14
Sean Hartigan '13
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 9 4 2 5 7 3 8 11 7 56 Annie Eckmann '14
Faith Swan '15
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 6 10 7 7 6 2 7 6 6 57 Joan Boyle '14 [1-9]
Tracy Venella '16 [1-8]
Jakub Tyczynski '15 [9]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 1 5 9 9 10 7 5 7 5 58 Eric Siegel '16 [1-9]
Richard Grouser Iii '16 [1-2, 9]
Adam Green '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Keaton Bresnahan '16 [5-6]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 8 6 8 3 8 9 9 8 9 68 Scott Barnhill '14 [1-6]
Sarah Celone '13 [7-9]
Scott Barnhill '14 [1-4, 7-9]
William Joumas '15 [5-6]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 10 9 11 10 9 8 10 9 10 86 Laine Meelheim '13
Nicholas Salandra '14
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 DNF 98 Christopher Cormier '13 [1-9]
Melissa Conway '16 [1-4]
Bryan Rich '13 [5-9]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 2 1 1 4 1 1 4 2 18 Marissa Golison '16
Allison Shane '15
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 3 4 2 3 1 3 3 3 1 23 Christian Geary '14
Lara Paul '15
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 3 3 4 10 4 7 6 3 41 Emma Ferris '15 [1-9]
Julia Mckenna '16 [1-8]
Charles Peck '15 [9]
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 9 1 6 2 3 2 2 DNF 5 42 Mary Buhl '14
Paul Sutherland '14
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 8 9 7 5 2 5 5 1 8 50 Chris Myers '15
Ashley Paulino '15
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 6 5 9 10 5 6 6 2 4 53 Sarah Gross '15 [1-4]
Andrew Grasso '15 [5-9]
Elizabeth Sipp '16 [1-6]
Sarah Gross '15 [7-9]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 5 6 4 9 9 8 4 5 7 57 Jennifer Kempton '13 [1-9]
Kristina Severino '14 [1-4]
Liam Boyle '16 [5-9]
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 4 10 5 8 6 10 8 8 6 65 Trevor Vonkaenel '13 [1-6]
William Joumas '15 [7-9]
Patricia Kelley '14 [1-6]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 7 7 8 6 8 7 9 9 9 70 Courtney Williams '14
Mary Morgan '15
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore 11 11 11 11 7 9 10 7 11 88 James Rush '14 [1-9]
Adam Rybczynski '14 [1-4]
Andrew Kelley '15 [5-9]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 10 8 10 7 DNF DNF 11 DNF 10 92 Siobhan Ryan '16 [1-9]
Jacquelyn Desoto '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Courtney Fussell '15 [3-6, 9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains112233445
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons223344556
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore334455667
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen445566778
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings556677889
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers6677889910
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers778899101011
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks8899101011111
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens9910101111112
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1010111111223
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen11111122334

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains112233445
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons223344556
University of Maryland/Baltimore CountyUniversity of Maryland/Baltimore County Maryland/Baltimore334455667
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen445566778
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings556677889
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers6677889910
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers778899101011
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks8899101011111
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens9910101111112
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1010111111223
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen11111122334
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Annie Eckmann '14 Faith Swan '15
Captains Mary Buhl '14 Paul Sutherland '14
Drexel University Drexel University Joan Boyle '14 [1-9] Tracy Venella '16 [1-8]
Jakub Tyczynski '15 [9]
Dragons Chris Myers '15 Ashley Paulino '15
Ocean County College Ocean County College Zachary Schippe '14 Sean Hartigan '13
Vikings Jennifer Kempton '13 [1-9] Kristina Severino '14 [1-4]
Liam Boyle '16 [5-9]
Princeton University Princeton University Samantha Gebb '14 Elizabeth Smith '14
Tigers Sarah Gross '15 [1-4]
Andrew Grasso '15 [5-9]		 Elizabeth Sipp '16 [1-6]
Sarah Gross '15 [7-9]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Laine Meelheim '13 Nicholas Salandra '14
Rutgers Courtney Williams '14 Mary Morgan '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Don Hause Iii '14 Kaitlyn Noreen '16
Seahawks Marissa Golison '16 Allison Shane '15
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Gerard Tonachel '13 Anne Ryan '14
Stevens Christian Geary '14 Lara Paul '15
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Charles Peck '15 Alyson Eng '16
Midshipmen Emma Ferris '15 [1-9] Julia Mckenna '16 [1-8]
Charles Peck '15 [9]
University of Maryland/Baltimore County University of Maryland/Baltimore County Christopher Cormier '13 [1-9] Melissa Conway '16 [1-4]
Bryan Rich '13 [5-9]
Maryland/Baltimore James Rush '14 [1-9] Adam Rybczynski '14 [1-4]
Andrew Kelley '15 [5-9]
Villanova University Villanova University Scott Barnhill '14 [1-6]
Sarah Celone '13 [7-9]		 Scott Barnhill '14 [1-4, 7-9]
William Joumas '15 [5-6]
Wildcats Trevor Vonkaenel '13 [1-6]
William Joumas '15 [7-9]		 Patricia Kelley '14 [1-6]
Washington College Washington College Eric Siegel '16 [1-9] Richard Grouser Iii '16 [1-2, 9]
Adam Green '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Keaton Bresnahan '16 [5-6]
Shoremen Siobhan Ryan '16 [1-9] Jacquelyn Desoto '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Courtney Fussell '15 [3-6, 9]

Conditions — 10/13/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1031.5 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From SE (142°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1031.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · SW 13 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington College: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →