St. Mary's College of Maryland '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 18.45 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.087 rating points from 161 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.09 (fleet 2.89) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 43–16 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 7–3 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 11–3 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 14–3 |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | — | 11–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 32–9 against 24.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | crew | 3.59 | 3.43 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | crew | 3.33 | 5.16 | 11–3 | 5.7 | +1.83 | 6.7 | <1% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | crew | 3.19 | 4.09 | 14–3 | 11.9 | +0.90 | 1.3 | 16% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.0 | 2.13 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.2 | 1.75 |
| Navy Spring | Crew | A | 12 | 7.8 | — |
| MAISA Women’s Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.0 | 4.46 |
| GW Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 2.73 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.4 | 3.04 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.1 | 2.92 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.4 | 2.91 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 7.8 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 2.77 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.9 | 3.17 |
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.6 | 5.42 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | A | 13 | 8.5 | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.3 | 4.02 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | 2.10 |
| MAISA Women's Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.7 | 2.79 |
| John Jackson Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.2 | 2.84 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.5 | 3.07 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.1 | 3.11 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Crew | B | 12 | 5.4 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.7 | 3.86 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.2 | 3.28 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.1 | 2.72 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | B | 12 | 5.9 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.8 | 2.55 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.7 | 2.59 |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Crew | B | 14 | 9.6 | — |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.0 | 3.52 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.0 | 2.36 |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.8 | 2.40 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.8 | 2.29 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.3 | 2.21 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 11.1 | — |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | A | 4 | 8.0 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.6 | 2.23 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 2.44 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Womens Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 5.5 | — |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Finals Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 6.7 | — |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.6 | 2.41 |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 5.4 | — |
| MAISA Women's Spring Dinghy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 3.2 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.3 | 2.02 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 5.4 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 1.91 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 5.4 | — |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 2.75 |
| MAISA Central qualifer | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.6 | 2.14 |
| Central Fall #2 | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.0 | 3.06 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
