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Central Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 28 19 47
2 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 55 32 87
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 49 42 91
4 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 41 53 94
5 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 47 53 100
6 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 63 95 158
7 Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Loyola University MD 104 98 202
8 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 117 104 221
9 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 123 114 237
10 Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 113 131 244
11 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 123 131 254
12 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 138 119 257
13 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 129 141 270
14 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 166 163 329
15 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 154 179 333
16 St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 183 159 342
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 6 2 4 2 4 1 1 1 2 3 1 28 Jonathan Lutz '17
Grace Mcdougall '16
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 2 9 4 1 4 5 4 2 4 1 1 4 41 Wade Wagner '19 [1-8]
Sam White '18 [9-12]
Alexandra Delbello '19 [1-8]
Alexandra Fayer '19 [9-12]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 7 2 5 3 1 2 7 4 3 3 5 5 47 Derek Poon Tip '19 [1-8]
Emma Mendenhall '19 [9-12]
Shira Golub '18 [1-8]
Matthew Homa '18 [9-12]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 1 3 2 5 6 3 3 2 DNF 2 2 49 James Morgan '18
Molly Hanson '17
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 9 7 1 6 3 3 5 5 5 4 4 3 55 Anders Ekholm '17
Bailey Fryer '18
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 11 3 6 5 6 1 2 6 6 5 6 6 63 Hannah Schmidt '17
Bridgette Hindt '18
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Loyola University MD 4 5 8 12 12 10 6 11 12 9 7 8 104 Theodore Fortier '17
Chloe Genakos '19
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 10 13 7 9 9 7 10 8 9 12 9 10 113 Mary Morgan '15
Treasa Casey '19
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 8 8 9 14 13 13 11 12 7 7 8 7 117 Sydney Seitz '17 [1-4, 9-12]
Amanda Nuse '17 [5-8]
Meaghan Gotto '17 [1-4, 9-10]
Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [5-8]
Giuseppe Licata '17 [11-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 6 11 14 8 7 12 12 14 8 8 12 11 123 Barrett Adams '17
Jessica Wilson '20
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 14 10 12 7 10 8 8 13 11 10 11 9 123 Sean Crandall '19 [1-2, 9-10]
Evan Shone '17 [3-8, 11-12]
Molly Hans '17 [1-2, 9-10]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 5 4 10 11 8 11 15 9 16 11 16 13 129 Daniel Sullivan '19 [1-8]
Malcolm Steinberg '17 [9-12]
Ernest Ruehl '19 [1-8]
Cameron Zeluck '18 [9-12]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 13 12 13 13 11 9 9 7 13 13 13 12 138 John Kirk '17
Angelina Graham '19
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 16 15 11 10 14 15 14 10 10 14 10 15 154 Joseph Marin '18
Nick Margay '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 12 14 15 15 16 16 13 15 14 6 14 16 166 Jessica Kurlander '18 [1-12]
Micayla Beyer '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Samantha Mislinski '19 [5-6]
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 15 16 16 16 15 14 16 16 15 15 15 14 183 Jack Cooper '18 [1-12]
Kelsey Cumiskey '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Karlena Haase '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 5 2 19 Marissa Golison '16 [1-10]
Kate Bjerregaard '19 [11-12]
Kate Bjerregaard '19 [1-10]
Marissa Golison '16 [11-12]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 2 4 5 2 4 1 2 2 2 1 5 32 Matt Cappetta '19
Gabrielle Mascio '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 5 1 2 3 3 3 8 4 5 4 1 42 Mary Robertson '17
Michelle Katz '18
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 4 3 6 3 4 2 6 6 5 4 3 7 53 Sarah Alexander '19 [1-6]
Taylor Brimberg '18 [7-12]
Gabriella Marki '17 [1-6]
Benjaim Helfand '16 [7-12]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 5 6 3 4 8 5 8 3 3 3 2 3 53 Samuel Mandell '19 [1-6]
Andrew Bennett '19 [7-12]
Kia Olsson '18 [1-6]
Michael Ince '16 [7-12]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 7 4 7 12 7 10 5 14 7 7 7 8 95 Paul Hart '19
Allison Cochran '18
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Loyola University MD 14 7 9 8 12 6 7 5 9 6 6 9 98 Chris Lane '17 [1-12]
Elizabeth Hull '18 [1-6]
Ailish Barry '18 [7-12]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 11 13 15 10 6 12 4 7 6 8 8 4 104 Veronica Lane '19 [1-6]
Brogan Savage '15 [7-12]
Alexandra Soubasis '18 [1-8]
Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [9-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 8 8 8 6 9 9 9 13 14 9 10 11 114 Dylan Boland '18
Jacob Pollak '20
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 13 10 11 15 5 7 10 9 8 12 9 10 119 Nina Van De Vaarst '19
Megan Parker '19
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 6 12 13 9 13 15 11 4 10 11 13 14 131 Taylor Niles '17 [1-12]
No Show [1-6, 9-12]
Corey Mounce '19 [7-8]
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 9 11 14 16 10 8 12 11 13 10 11 6 131 Tyler Wyatt '17 [1-2, 5-10]
Martha Diezemann '18 [3-4, 11-12]
Caroline Haddaway '18 [1-2, 5-10]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 15 9 5 7 11 11 14 12 12 14 15 16 141 Bennett Brainard '17 [1-12]
Aryana Navarro '18 [1-6]
Oscar Mahoney '18 [7-10]
Mikecia Clarke '19 [11-12]
St. John's College St. John's College Johnnies 10 14 10 13 14 DNF 13 16 11 13 16 12 159 Catherine White '16
Madeline Edwards '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 12 16 12 11 15 14 15 10 16 15 14 13 163 No Show
No Show
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 16 15 16 14 16 13 16 15 15 16 12 15 179 Alexandra Polli '16
Jimmy Rios '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens15151133557799
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons11335577991111
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams22161614141212101088
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 13355779911111313
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 244221616141412121010
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Loyola University MD557799111113131515
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks664422161614141212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen141412121010886644
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings779911111313151511
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions8866442216161414
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers991111131315151133
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights1010886644221616
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies1212101088664422
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1313151511335577
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves111113131515113355
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen16161414121210108866

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens1616224466881010
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons2244668810101212
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams111515131311119977
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 1446688101012121414
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 2331115151313111199
Loyola University MarylandLoyola University Maryland Loyola University MD66881010121214141616
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks553311151513131111
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1313111199775533
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings88101012121414161622
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions7755331115151313
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers10101212141416162244
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights99775533111515
St. John's CollegeSt. John's College Johnnies11119977553311
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks1414161622446688
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves121214141616224466
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen151513131111997755
School / Team SkipperCrew
Drexel University Drexel University Barrett Adams '17 Jessica Wilson '20
Dragons Dylan Boland '18 Jacob Pollak '20
Fordham University Fordham University Anders Ekholm '17 Bailey Fryer '18
Rams Matt Cappetta '19 Gabrielle Mascio '18
George Washington University George Washington University Wade Wagner '19 [1-8]
Sam White '18 [9-12]		 Alexandra Delbello '19 [1-8]
Alexandra Fayer '19 [9-12]
Colonials 1 Sarah Alexander '19 [1-6]
Taylor Brimberg '18 [7-12]		 Gabriella Marki '17 [1-6]
Benjaim Helfand '16 [7-12]
George Washington University George Washington University Derek Poon Tip '19 [1-8]
Emma Mendenhall '19 [9-12]		 Shira Golub '18 [1-8]
Matthew Homa '18 [9-12]
Colonials 2 Samuel Mandell '19 [1-6]
Andrew Bennett '19 [7-12]		 Kia Olsson '18 [1-6]
Michael Ince '16 [7-12]
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University Maryland Theodore Fortier '17 Chloe Genakos '19
Loyola University MD Chris Lane '17 [1-12] Elizabeth Hull '18 [1-6]
Ailish Barry '18 [7-12]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Sydney Seitz '17 [1-4, 9-12]
Amanda Nuse '17 [5-8]		 Meaghan Gotto '17 [1-4, 9-10]
Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [5-8]
Giuseppe Licata '17 [11-12]
Hawks Veronica Lane '19 [1-6]
Brogan Savage '15 [7-12]		 Alexandra Soubasis '18 [1-8]
Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [9-12]
Ocean County College Ocean County College John Kirk '17 Angelina Graham '19
Vikings Nina Van De Vaarst '19 Megan Parker '19
Penn State University Penn State University Joseph Marin '18 Nick Margay '19
Nittany Lions Alexandra Polli '16 Jimmy Rios '17
Princeton University Princeton University Daniel Sullivan '19 [1-8]
Malcolm Steinberg '17 [9-12]		 Ernest Ruehl '19 [1-8]
Cameron Zeluck '18 [9-12]
Tigers Bennett Brainard '17 [1-12] Aryana Navarro '18 [1-6]
Oscar Mahoney '18 [7-10]
Mikecia Clarke '19 [11-12]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Mary Morgan '15 Treasa Casey '19
Scarlet Knights Taylor Niles '17 [1-12] No Show [1-6, 9-12]
Corey Mounce '19 [7-8]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Jessica Kurlander '18 [1-12] Micayla Beyer '19 [1-4, 7-12]
Samantha Mislinski '19 [5-6]
Seawolves No Show No Show
St. John's College St. John's College Jack Cooper '18 [1-12] Kelsey Cumiskey '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Karlena Haase '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Johnnies Catherine White '16 Madeline Edwards '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Jonathan Lutz '17 Grace Mcdougall '16
Seahawks Marissa Golison '16 [1-10]
Kate Bjerregaard '19 [11-12]		 Kate Bjerregaard '19 [1-10]
Marissa Golison '16 [11-12]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy James Morgan '18 Molly Hanson '17
Midshipmen Mary Robertson '17 Michelle Katz '18
University of Delaware University of Delaware Sean Crandall '19 [1-2, 9-10]
Evan Shone '17 [3-8, 11-12]		 Molly Hans '17 [1-2, 9-10]
Blue Hens Tyler Wyatt '17 [1-2, 5-10]
Martha Diezemann '18 [3-4, 11-12]		 Caroline Haddaway '18 [1-2, 5-10]
Washington College Washington College Hannah Schmidt '17 Bridgette Hindt '18
Shoremen Paul Hart '19 Allison Cochran '18

Conditions — 10/17/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1021.5 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.5 kn
Gusts to 21.6 kn
From NW (315°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1021.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · W 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Washington College: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.18 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →