St. Mary's College of Maryland '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 (fleet 3.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 84–60 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 6 | 45–45 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 21–5 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 18–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (144 matches) the record is 84–60 against 83.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.21 | 3.47 | 6–8 | 5.3 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.28 | 4.84 | 16–1 | 13.4 | +1.56 | 2.5 | 8% |
| 2017-03-25 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.00 | 3.00 | 6–8 | 6.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.06 | 2.97 | 6–9 | 6.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2017-03-11 | St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | skipper | 3.02 | 2.63 | 3–6 | 3.7 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2017-03-04 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.80 | 2.50 | 8–13 | 9.4 | −0.30 | 0.3 | 81% |
| 2016-03-26 | MAISA/SAISA | skipper | 3.02 | 4.82 | 14–2 | 11.1 | +1.79 | 3.6 | 3% |
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.06 | 2.90 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 3.03 | 10–4 | 9.6 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2015-03-28 | MAISA/SAISA Team Race | skipper | 3.07 | 1.60 | 8–6 | 11.6 | −1.47 | 4.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.9 | 3.35 |
| St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 17 | 94% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.6 | 3.81 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.6 | 3.08 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.3 | 3.29 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.2 | 2.10 |
| Intrepid Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Harry Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 12.0 | 2.78 |
| 43rd Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.8 | 3.34 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.8 | 2.60 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | TR | 16 | 88% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.1 | 3.67 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.0 | 3.08 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 3.51 |
| Central Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.4 | 3.19 |
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.3 | 3.77 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.4 | 3.30 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 2.82 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Ocean County Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 1.7 | 4.31 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.6 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.6 | 2.66 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.2 | 2.27 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.4 | 3.01 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.5 | 2.51 |
| Central Fall #1 | Skipper | B | 18 | 3.8 | 2.90 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jonathan Lutz |  Christian Brothers Academy |
'13 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
