Graham Hall

HostNavy
Date03/18/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–5
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	15–5
3	Boston College	Eagles	15–5
4	George Washington University	Colonials	12–8
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	12–8
6	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	11–9
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	9–6
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–7
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–7
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	6–9
11	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–9
12	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–9
13	College of Charleston	Cougars	6–9
14	Fordham University	Rams	3–12
15	Jacksonville University	Fins	2–13
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,725 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 104 of 138 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.559 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.35 ± 0.17: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 16% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	2	12.24 school +0.26	Malcolm Lamphere / Chandler Gregoire 3.77 8–2 Nicholas Baird / Clara Robertson 4.00 8–1 Ian Barrows / Graceann Nicolosi 4.30 8–1 Joseph Kiss / Natalya Doris 3.82 8–1 Ian Barrows / Clara Robertson 4.26 4–1 Ian Barrows / Chandler Gregoire 4.40 2–3 Nicholas Baird / Natalya Doris 4.02 4–0 Joseph Kiss / Clara Robertson 3.79 2–2 Joseph Kiss / Graceann Nicolosi 3.83 2–1 Malcolm Lamphere / Natalya Doris 3.68 2–1 Malcolm Lamphere / Graceann Nicolosi 3.69 1–2 Nicholas Baird / Graceann Nicolosi 4.05 1–0 Nicholas Baird / Chandler Gregoire 4.15 1–0	78%	17–5 (77%)	−0.2
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	6	11.57	Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.59 15–6 Campbell D'Eliscu / Rebecca Fung 3.98 15–5 Aj Reiter / Meaghan Macrae 3.90 12–6 Sean Segerblom / Meaghan Macrae 4.13 4–0 Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 4.05 1–1 Sean Segerblom / Haley Shea 3.94 1–0	63%	16–6 (73%)	+2.1
3	Boston College Eagles	1	12.33 school +0.31	Charles Sinks / Allison Ferraris 3.98 Erika Reineke / Lily Mcgrath 4.16 13–7 Harry Koeppel / Hannah Lynn 3.83 11–5 Harry Koeppel / Megan Bamford 3.86 2–2 Harry Koeppel / Lily Mcgrath 3.85 2–0 Erika Reineke / Henry Dumke 4.16 2–0	79%	15–7 (68%)	−2.3
4	George Washington University Colonials	9	10.42 school −0.09	Brendan Shanahan / Andreea Rainey-Pace 3.76 11–8 Kai Friesecke / Miranda Bakos 3.63 10–6 Andrew Sheerin / Edward D'Eliscu 3.23 7–5 Derek Poon Tip / Shira Golub 3.11 4–2 Derek Poon Tip / Isabel Strachan 3.02 2–2 Andrew Sheerin / Matthew Homa 3.36 2–1	43%	12–8 (60%)	+3.4
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	11.38 home +0.24	Peter Hogan / Mary Robertson 3.35 10–5 Patrick Snow / Mary Morocco 3.94 10–5 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.77 10–5 Michael Madigan / Ana Mier 3.37 2–3 Patrick Snow / Mary Robertson 4.00 2–3 Gary Prieto / Mary Morocco 3.84 2–3	64%	12–8 (60%)	−0.8
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	10	10.38 school +0.13	Matthew Kaplan / Dana Bloch 3.49 Jack Mcguire / Hunter Moeller 3.50 William Hawk / Louisa Lindgren 3.18	42%	11–9 (55%)	+2.6
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4	11.51 school +0.25	Greiner Hobbs / Anna Flaherty 3.89 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.95 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.38 8–6 Charles Miller / Kyle Easton 3.16 1–0	70%	9–6 (60%)	−1.4
8	Tufts University Jumbos	7	10.90 school +0.17	John Rolander / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.65 Alexander Tong / Lara Dienemann 3.48 Scott Barbano / Ian Morgan 3.57	60%	8–7 (53%)	−1.0
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	10.28 school −0.28	Trevor Long / Jordan Ladd 3.52 6–5 Cutter O'Connell / Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan 3.22 5–6 Alexander Stewart / Paige Omura 3.71 5–6 Ty Ingram / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.43 6–3 Ty Ingram / Jordan Ladd 3.78 0–1 Ty Ingram / Paige Omura 3.84 1–0 Ty Ingram / Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan 3.78 1–0	47%	8–7 (53%)	+1.0
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	11	10.07 school +0.49	Bradley Adam / Hannah Chapman 3.35 Kyle Burgess / Shelby Jacobs 3.12 Jonathan Lutz / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.06	42%	6–9 (40%)	−0.2
11	Old Dominion University Monarchs	13	9.32 school −0.34	Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.50 Jack Elkin / Gabriel Smith 3.42 5–8 James Jacob / Dane Pedersen 2.57 5–6 Dreugh Phillips / Elleanor Wells 3.18 2–4	30%	6–9 (40%)	+1.5
12	University of South Florida Bulls	12	9.86	Andrew Baird / Cameron Smith 3.13 Sean Cornell / Darby Capellin 3.81 Brendan Feeney / John Monahan 2.72	39%	6–9 (40%)	+0.2
13	College of Charleston Cougars	3	11.60 school +0.43	Jack Cusick / Chloe Dapp 3.87 Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.22 Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 4.02	71%	6–9 (40%)	−4.7
14	Fordham University Rams	15	8.41 school −0.15	Alecsander Tayler / Charlotte Leclue 3.23 Anders Ekholm / Makena Masterson 2.29 Roberto Stevens / Lauren Holderman 2.83	18%	3–12 (20%)	+0.4
15	Jacksonville University Fins	14	8.62 school −0.12	Daniel Lawless / Hannah Knighton 2.80 Ethan Lounsbury / Kelsy Waack 2.85 2–11 Stephan Verhulst / Hunter Skinner 3.07 2–5 Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Hunter Skinner 0–5 Hunter Skinner / Alfonso Garcia Bringas 0–3 Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Kelsy Waack 0–2	21%	2–13 (13%)	−1.1
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	16	6.43 school −0.31	Cooper Siepert / Garrett Lawlor 0–9 Max Neubelt / Patrick Scollard 2.89 1–7 Max Neubelt / Patrick Hegarty 2.86 0–7 Ryan Wood / Patrick Scollard 1.44 0–7 Garrett Lawlor / Patrick Hegarty 1–5 Cooper Siepert / Ryan Wood 1–5 Ryan Wood / Patrick Hegarty 1.36 0–2	3%	1–14 (7%)	+0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	George Washington University	10.42	11.34	12–8	8.6	+0.92	2.3	6%
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	6.43	7.32	1–14	0.5	+0.89	0.4	37%
6	Bowdoin College	10.38	11.08	11–9	8.4	+0.70	1.3	13%
11	Old Dominion University	9.32	9.99	6–9	4.5	+0.68	0.7	24%
2	Georgetown University	11.57	12.14	16–6	13.9	+0.57	0.9	20%
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.28	10.68	8–7	7.0	+0.40	0.3	37%
14	Fordham University	8.41	8.63	3–12	2.7	+0.22	0.1	52%
12	University of South Florida	9.86	9.92	6–9	5.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
1	Yale University	12.24	12.19	17–5	17.2	−0.05	0.0	66%
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.07	9.97	6–9	6.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
5	U. S. Naval Academy	11.38	11.15	12–8	12.8	−0.22	0.1	76%
8	Tufts University	10.90	10.54	8–7	9.0	−0.37	0.3	82%
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.51	10.94	9–6	10.4	−0.56	0.6	89%
3	Boston College	12.33	11.69	15–7	17.3	−0.64	1.1	94%
15	Jacksonville University	8.62	7.81	2–13	3.1	−0.82	0.6	91%
13	College of Charleston	11.60	9.80	6–9	10.7	−1.80	6.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.00	5.52	14–1	11.7	+1.53	2.1	11%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.43	4.39	8–4	6.1	+0.96	1.3	16%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	3.76	4.66	11–8	7.8	+0.90	2.1	7%
Max Neubelt	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.89	3.78	1–14	0.5	+0.89	0.4	37%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.23	4.07	9–6	6.7	+0.84	1.4	13%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.50	4.20	11–9	8.4	+0.70	1.3	13%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	3.18	3.88	11–9	8.4	+0.70	1.3	13%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.50	4.17	6–9	4.5	+0.68	0.7	24%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.90	4.32	12–6	10.6	+0.43	0.4	31%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.23	3.45	3–12	2.7	+0.22	0.1	52%
Anders Ekholm	Fordham University	2.29	2.51	3–12	2.7	+0.22	0.1	52%
Roberto Stevens	Fordham University	2.83	3.06	3–12	2.7	+0.22	0.1	52%
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.52	3.66	6–5	5.8	+0.14	0.0	58%
Andrew Baird	University of South Florida	3.13	3.19	6–9	5.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.81	3.87	6–9	5.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
Brendan Feeney	University of South Florida	2.72	2.78	6–9	5.9	+0.06	0.0	58%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.30	4.22	14–5	14.3	−0.08	0.0	68%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.35	3.26	6–9	6.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.12	3.02	6–9	6.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.71	3.55	5–6	5.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.94	3.71	12–8	12.8	−0.22	0.1	76%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.77	3.55	12–8	12.8	−0.22	0.1	76%
Stephan Verhulst	Jacksonville University	3.07	2.84	2–5	2.2	−0.23	0.0	77%
John Rolander	Tufts University	3.65	3.28	8–7	9.0	−0.37	0.3	82%
Alexander Tong	Tufts University	3.48	3.11	8–7	9.0	−0.37	0.3	82%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	3.57	3.21	8–7	9.0	−0.37	0.3	82%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.38	2.81	9–6	10.4	−0.56	0.6	89%
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	3.82	3.22	12–4	13.4	−0.60	0.6	90%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.83	3.19	15–7	17.3	−0.64	1.1	94%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.16	3.52	15–7	17.3	−0.64	1.1	94%
Daniel Lawless	Jacksonville University	2.80	1.98	2–13	3.1	−0.82	0.6	91%
Jack Cusick	College of Charleston	3.87	2.07	6–9	10.7	−1.80	6.1	>99%
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	4.02	2.22	6–9	10.7	−1.80	6.1	>99%
Michael Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	3.37	1.22	2–3	3.7	−2.15	2.5	99%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	3.11	0.11	0–7	1.1	≤−3.00	1.6	>99%
Ryan Wood	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.44	-1.56	0–9	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
1	2	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	3	Tufts University	Jacksonville University	91%
1	4	Bowdoin College	Old Dominion University	63%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	44%	upset
1	6	Georgetown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
1	7	University of South Florida	Fordham University	82%
1	8	George Washington University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
1	9	Tufts University	Yale University	22%	upset
1	10	Bowdoin College	Boston College	12%	upset
1	11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Jacksonville University	94%
1	12	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	57%
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	95%
1	14	George Washington University	Georgetown University	31%	upset
1	15	University of South Florida	College of Charleston	14%	upset
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
1	17	Yale University	Jacksonville University	98%
1	18	Boston College	Old Dominion University	96%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	46%	upset
1	20	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
1	21	Tufts University	College of Charleston	34%	upset
1	22	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	46%	upset
1	23	Yale University	University of South Florida	93%
1	24	Boston College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	25	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	96%
1	26	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	62%
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	94%
1	28	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	93%
1	29	Tufts University	University of South Florida	75%
1	30	Bowdoin College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
1	31	Yale University	College of Charleston	68%
1	32	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	89%
1	33	Jacksonville University	Fordham University	58%
1	34	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	80%
1	35	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	16%	upset
1	36	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4%	upset
1	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	61%
1	38	Bowdoin College	Georgetown University	23%	upset
1	39	Yale University	Fordham University	98%
1	40	George Washington University	Boston College	13%	upset
1	41	University of South Florida	Jacksonville University	75%
1	42	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	88%
1	43	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	52%
1	44	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	St. Mary's College of Maryland	49%	upset
1	45	Tufts University	Fordham University	92%
1	46	George Washington University	Bowdoin College	52%
1	47	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
1	48	Georgetown University	Boston College	30%	upset
1	49	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	94%
1	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Old Dominion University	83%
1	51	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	60%
1	52	Bowdoin College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%
1	53	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	81%
1	54	Georgetown University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	55	Fordham University	College of Charleston	4%	upset
1	56	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	George Washington University	45%	upset
1	57	Boston College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	69%
1	58	Yale University	Old Dominion University	94%
1	59	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	30%	upset
1	60	U. S. Naval Academy	Bowdoin College	73%
1	61	University of South Florida	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
1	62	George Washington University	College of Charleston	26%	upset
1	63	Boston College	Fordham University	98%
1	64	Georgetown University	Jacksonville University	97%
1	65	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	79%
1	66	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	67	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	33%	upset
1	68	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	37%	upset
1	69	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
1	70	Georgetown University	Fordham University	96%
1	71	College of Charleston	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	72	George Washington University	Jacksonville University	75%
1	73	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
1	74	Bowdoin College	University of South Florida	62%
1	75	Boston College	Tufts University	80%
1	76	Georgetown University	Yale University	34%	upset
1	77	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Naval Academy	21%	upset
1	78	Jacksonville University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	93%
1	79	George Washington University	Fordham University	80%
1	80	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	8%	upset
1	81	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	54%
1	82	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Bowdoin College	76%
1	83	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	59%
1	84	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	85	Yale University	George Washington University	86%
1	86	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	53%
1	87	Old Dominion University	Jacksonville University	75%
1	88	Boston College	University of South Florida	92%
1	89	Bowdoin College	Fordham University	87%
1	90	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	80%
1	91	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	92	College of Charleston	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
1	93	Georgetown University	Tufts University	64%
1	94	Yale University	Boston College	50%
1	95	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	21%	upset
1	96	Bowdoin College	Jacksonville University	82%
1	97	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	72%
1	98	University of South Florida	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	43%	upset
1	99	Tufts University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	100	Boston College	College of Charleston	67%
1	101	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	51%
1	102	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Jacksonville University	77%
1	103	Bowdoin College	Yale University	15%	upset
1	104	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Fordham University	86%
1	105	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	15%	upset
1	106	George Washington University	University of South Florida	66%
1	107	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	55%
1	108	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	18%	upset
1	109	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Jacksonville University	93%
1	110	Yale University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	111	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	10%	upset
1	112	Tufts University	George Washington University	72%
1	113	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	86%
1	114	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	83%
1	115	Boston College	Jacksonville University	96%
1	116	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	77%
1	117	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
1	118	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	91%
1	119	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	80%
1	120	Fordham University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	91%
3	136	Yale University	Georgetown University	66%
3	137	Georgetown University	Boston College	31%	upset
3	138	Yale University	Boston College	50%
6	121	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	28%	upset
6	122	Yale University	George Washington University	86%
6	123	Georgetown University	Bowdoin College	76%
6	124	Boston College	Yale University	50%	upset
6	125	U. S. Naval Academy	Bowdoin College	72%
6	126	Georgetown University	George Washington University	69%
6	127	Bowdoin College	Yale University	15%	upset
6	128	Boston College	George Washington University	87%
6	129	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	51%
6	130	George Washington University	Bowdoin College	51%
6	131	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
6	132	Boston College	Georgetown University	69%
6	133	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	20%	upset
6	134	Boston College	Bowdoin College	87%
6	135	Yale University	Georgetown University	66%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Eagles	Colonials	Midshipmen	Bears	Statesmen	Jumbos	Engineers	Seahawks	Monarchs	Bulls	Cougars	Rams	Fins	Mariners
Yale University Bulldogs	12–3	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	12–3	W	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	11–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	10–5	L	W	W	✕	L	W	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	10–5	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	10–5	W	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9–6	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	8–7	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8–7	L	L	L	W	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–9	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–9	L	W	L	L	L	W	W	L	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W
Jacksonville University Fins	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Eagles
Yale University Bulldogs	2–0	✕	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–1	L	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	0–2	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Eagles	Colonials	Midshipmen	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	3–2	✕	W	L	W	W	L
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–1	W	W	✕	W	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–4	W	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
2	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
3	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
4	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
5	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
7	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
8	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
9	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
10	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
11	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
12	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
13	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
14	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
15	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
16	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
18	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
19	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
20	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
21	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6 DNF
22	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
23	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
24	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
25	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
26	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
27	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
28	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
29	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
30	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
32	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
33	Fins	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
34	Colonials	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
35	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
36	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
37	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
38	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
39	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
40	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
41	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
42	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
43	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
44	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
45	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
46	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
47	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
48	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
49	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
50	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
51	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
52	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
53	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
54	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
55	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
56	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
57	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
59	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
60	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
61	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Mariners	2-4-5
62	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
63	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
64	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
65	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
66	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
67	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Bulls	2-4-6
68	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
69	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
70	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
71	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
72	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Fins	2-4-6
73	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
74	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
75	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
76	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
77	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
78	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
79	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
80	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
81	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
82	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
83	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
84	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
85	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
86	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
87	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
88	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
89	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
90	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
91	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
92	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
93	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
94	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
95	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
96	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
97	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
98	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
99	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
100	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
101	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
102	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Fins	1-5-6
103	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
104	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
105	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
106	Colonials	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
107	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
108	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
109	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
110	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
111	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
112	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
113	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
114	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
115	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
116	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
117	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
118	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
119	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Colonials	2-4-5
120	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Mariners	2-4-6
136	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
137	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
138	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
121	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
122	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
123	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
124	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
125	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
126	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
127	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
128	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
129	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
130	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
131	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
132	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
133	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
134	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
135	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Ian Barrows '17 Joseph Kiss '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19	Clara Robertson '17 Chandler Gregoire '17 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Natalya Doris '17
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Roger Dorr '18 Sean Segerblom '20	Meaghan Macrae '18 Rebecca Fung '19 Haley Shea '19
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Erika Reineke '17 Harry Koeppel '17	Allison Ferraris '17 Lily Mcgrath '18 Henry Dumke '17 Megan Bamford '18 Hannah Lynn '17
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Brendan Shanahan '17 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18	Edward D'Eliscu '20 Matthew Homa '18 Andreea Rainey-Pace '20 Shira Golub '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Miranda Bakos '18
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Michael Madigan '17 Patrick Snow '17 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Mary Morocco '19 Mary Robertson '17
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Jack Mcguire '17 Matthew Kaplan '19 William Hawk '18	Hunter Moeller '17 Dana Bloch '17 Louisa Lindgren '19
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20	Lindsey Kloc '19 Kyle Easton '20 Anna Flaherty '20 Maya Weber '20
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alexander Tong '17 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17	Lara Dienemann '18 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Ian Morgan '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 Cutter O'Connell '18 Trevor Long '19 Ty Ingram '18	Paige Omura '17 Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 Jordan Ladd '17 Sameena Shaffeeullah '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Jonathan Lutz '17 Kyle Burgess '17	Hannah Chapman '17 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Shelby Jacobs '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Dreugh Phillips '21 Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Elleanor Wells '18 Gabriel Smith '17 Dane Pedersen '19 Carter Little '18
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andrew Baird '18 Brendan Feeney '18 Sean Cornell '18	Cameron Smith '19 John Monahan '20 Darby Capellin '19
College of Charleston	Cougars	Christophe Killian '18 Jack Cusick '17 Stefano Peschiera '18	Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Chloe Dapp '17 Grace Mccarthy '18
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Anders Ekholm '17 Roberto Stevens '19	Charlotte Leclue '19 Makena Masterson '19 Lauren Holderman '18
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Daniel Lawless '17 Ethan Lounsbury '17 Hunter Skinner '20 Stephan Verhulst '19	Hunter Skinner '20 Kelsy Waack '18 Hannah Knighton '17 Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Cooper Siepert '20 Garrett Lawlor '20 Max Neubelt '17 Ryan Wood '17	Garrett Lawlor '20 Ryan Wood '17 Patrick Hegarty '18 Patrick Scollard '17

Conditions — 03/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1017.5 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.1 kn

avg · max 9.1 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From ENE (76°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover78% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1017.5 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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