College of Charleston '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.17 (fleet 4.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 71–37 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 7 | 71–37 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (108 matches) the record is 71–37 against 68.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.1). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 25 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.98 | 5.69 | 21–4 | 14.1 | +1.70 | 7.9 | <1% |
| 2017-04-08 | SAISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 3.93 | 4.25 | 9–1 | 8.7 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 61% |
| 2017-04-01 | The 36th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.95 | 3.13 | 5–9 | 7.6 | −0.82 | 1.5 | 96% |
| 2017-03-25 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.82 | 4.78 | 9–5 | 6.5 | +0.96 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.87 | 2.07 | 6–9 | 10.7 | −1.80 | 6.1 | >99% |
| 2017-03-11 | St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | skipper | 3.84 | 1.92 | 3–6 | 6.6 | −1.92 | 5.1 | >99% |
| 2017-03-04 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.52 | 4.51 | 18–3 | 14.7 | +0.99 | 2.1 | 8% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
