| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 10–2 |
| 2 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 8–4 |
| 4 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 7–5 |
| 5 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 5–4 |
| 6 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal | 3–6 |
| 7 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 3–6 |
| 8 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 3–6 |
| 9 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 3–6 |
| 10 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,644 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 51 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.586 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.04 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 38% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | U. S. Naval Academy | 10.83 | 12.03 | 9–3 | 6.2 | +1.20 | 2.4 | 7% |
| 4 | George Washington University | 10.40 | 11.22 | 7–5 | 4.9 | +0.81 | 1.2 | 15% |
| 8 | Brown University | 9.40 | 9.95 | 3–6 | 2.1 | +0.55 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 5 | Roger Williams University | 10.44 | 10.85 | 5–4 | 4.2 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 41% |
| 1 | Boston College | 11.99 | 12.31 | 10–2 | 9.4 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 11.23 | 11.52 | 8–4 | 7.3 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 7 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 10.23 | 9.83 | 3–6 | 3.7 | −0.39 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 6 | Stanford University | 10.62 | 9.78 | 3–6 | 4.6 | −0.84 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 9 | College of Charleston | 11.66 | 9.73 | 3–6 | 6.6 | −1.92 | 5.1 | >99% |
| 10 | Old Dominion University | 9.36 | 6.36 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Midshipmen | Statesmen | Colonials | Hawks | Cardinal | Seahawks | Bears | Cougars | Monarchs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 8–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 7–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 6–3 | L | W | ✕ | L | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 7–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–4 | W | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W | L | L | W |
| Stanford University Cardinal | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–6 | L | L | L | L | W | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 0–9 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Midshipmen | Statesmen | Colonials | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 2–1 | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Statesmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Colonials | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Colonials | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cardinal | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinal | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinal | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cardinal | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Eagles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinal | 2-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Cardinal | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-3-6 |
| 47 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
