Old Dominion University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.61 (fleet 3.57) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 139–143 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 34–36 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 6 | 39–46 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 6 | 51–36 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 11–13 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 4–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 20 graded regattas (282 matches) the record is 139–143 against 126.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+12.9). 5 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 29 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.58 | 3.78 | 5–9 | 4.4 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.62 | 3.50 | 8–10 | 8.4 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.54 | 4.04 | 8–7 | 6.8 | +0.50 | 0.4 | 31% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.42 | 4.59 | 6–5 | 3.7 | +1.16 | 2.0 | 9% |
| 2019-03-02 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 4.26 | 7–5 | 5.2 | +0.91 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 2018-04-07 | Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | skipper | 3.32 | 0.32 | 0–9 | 2.2 | ≤−3.00 | 3.5 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.37 | 3.15 | 7–7 | 7.7 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.43 | 3.34 | 8–8 | 8.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.38 | 3.80 | 10–7 | 8.7 | +0.42 | 0.4 | 32% |
| 2018-03-03 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.43 | 1.42 | 1–4 | 2.8 | −2.01 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2018-02-24 | St. Mary's Quad Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 4.07 | 13–11 | 10.6 | +0.59 | 1.1 | 16% |
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.74 | 4.13 | 8–7 | 7.2 | +0.39 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2017-04-08 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.60 | 4.95 | 10–5 | 5.8 | +1.34 | 4.0 | 2% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.47 | 3.95 | 13–4 | 11.6 | +0.48 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.49 | 5.36 | 15–3 | 9.5 | +1.87 | 7.0 | <1% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.42 | 4.21 | 5–8 | 3.5 | +0.78 | 0.9 | 21% |
| 2017-03-11 | St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | skipper | 3.47 | 0.47 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.3 | >99% |
| 2016-03-26 | MAISA/SAISA | skipper | 3.19 | 2.28 | 7–9 | 8.8 | −0.91 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 2016-03-12 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 3.45 | 4–4 | 3.3 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 44% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 2.58 | 4–12 | 5.5 | −0.65 | 0.7 | 91% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.9 | 2.53 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.6 | 4.18 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 3.81 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.7 | 4.49 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.9 | 3.56 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.9 | 4.04 |
| Top 9 Regatta Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 2.63 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 3.69 |
| Oyster Bowl Fleet 1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 3.18 |
| Harvard Coed Showcase 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.4 | 3.69 |
| Fiske-Harriman-Sleigh Trophy Coed Showcase | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.4 | 3.50 |
| Chesapeake Invitational (Sunday) | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 4.32 |
| Chesapeake Invitational (Sat) | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 3.53 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Quad Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.9 | 4.21 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.3 | 3.86 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 4.32 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 3.3 | 5.17 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.0 | 3.18 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.9 | 4.34 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 3.95 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.0 | 3.65 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.5 | 4.34 |
| St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 3.43 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.3 | 3.92 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 5.12 |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.7 | 2.99 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.4 | 4.60 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.4 | 3.69 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.6 | 3.94 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.7 | 3.53 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.5 | 2.98 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 3.36 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.3 | 3.02 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jack Elkin |  Christchurch School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
