LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship

HostCharleston
Date05/27/2017
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	21–4
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	19–6
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	17–8
4	Boston College	Eagles	17–8
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	12–10
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	12–10
7	Stanford University	Cardinal	11–11
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	10–12
9	Eckerd College	Tritons	8–7
9	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	8–7
9	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–7
12	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	5–10
13	Northwestern University	Wildcats	2–13
14	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	2–13
15	Oregon State University	Beavers	1–14
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	1–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,974 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 115 of 154 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.436 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.01 ± 0.17: a typical event, more orderly than 41% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	8	11.55 school +0.31	Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy 3.92 20–4 Jack Cusick / Chloe Dapp 3.98 19–4 Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton 3.30 19–4 Jack Cusick / Caroline Bracken 3.83 2–0 Christophe Killian / Annabel Carrington 3.32 2–0 Stefano Peschiera / Chloe Dapp 4.08 1–0	56%	21–4 (84%)	+6.9
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.83 school +0.26	Ian Barrows / Clara Robertson 4.34 17–6 Malcolm Lamphere / Chandler Gregoire 3.88 13–6 Nicholas Baird / Graceann Nicolosi 4.30 14–3 Nicholas Baird / Natalya Doris 4.36 5–3 Joseph Kiss / Chandler Gregoire 3.94 4–0 Ian Barrows / Graceann Nicolosi 4.40 2–0 Malcolm Lamphere / Clara Robertson 3.78 2–0	82%	19–6 (76%)	−1.5
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	11.84	Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.66 11–8 Campbell D'Eliscu / Meaghan Macrae 4.11 11–8 Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 4.09 11–8 Sean Segerblom / Meaghan Macrae 4.16 6–0 Roger Dorr / Rebecca Fung 3.76 5–0 Campbell D'Eliscu / Rose Edwards 3.82 4–0 William Logue / Albert Kraus 3.91 2–0 Roger Dorr / Rose Edwards 3.52 1–0	63%	17–8 (68%)	+1.3
4	Boston College Eagles	3	12.09 school +0.19	Harry Koeppel / Hannah Lynn 3.82 10–6 Erika Reineke / Lily Mcgrath 4.16 10–6 Charles Sinks / Allison Ferraris 3.96 10–6 Charles Sinks / Henry Dumke 3.85 7–2 Harry Koeppel / Emma Perry 3.83 5–2 Erika Reineke / Tara Ferraris 4.11 4–2 Harry Koeppel / Tara Ferraris 3.76 2–0 Erika Reineke / Fiona Walsh 4.19 2–0 Erika Reineke / Scott Rasmussen 4.11 1–0	68%	17–8 (68%)	−0.1
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2	11.94 school +0.20	Greiner Hobbs / Anna Flaherty 4.09 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.58 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 4.03 10–8 Hector Guzman / Adam Schaefer 4.06 2–2	68%	12–10 (55%)	−3.1
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	11.55	Peter Hogan / Mary Robertson 3.47 10–10 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.99 11–9 Patrick Snow / Mary Morocco 4.13 8–9 Michael Madigan / Mary Morocco 3.36 3–0 Patrick Snow / Brittney Slook 4.00 2–1 Gary Prieto / Molly Hanson 3.92 1–1 Patrick Snow / Mary Robertson 4.23 1–0	61%	12–10 (55%)	−1.4
7	Stanford University Cardinal	6	11.43 school +0.46	Jacob Rosenberg / Sarah Placek 3.57 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.30 4–10 Will La Dow / Kathryn Booker 4.04 5–8 Will La Dow / John Cannistraro 4.17 6–3 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Elena Vandenberg 3.24 6–1 William Marshall / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.25 1–0	58%	11–11 (50%)	−1.8
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9	11.16 school −0.09	Alexander Stewart / Paige Omura 3.96 Cutter O'Connell / Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan 3.36 8–8 Ty Ingram / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.81 4–7 Ty Ingram / Jordan Ladd 4.00 6–5 Cutter O'Connell / Jorlyn Le Garrec 3.31 2–4	52%	10–12 (45%)	−1.4
9	Eckerd College Tritons	11	9.85 school +0.15	Jason D'Agostino / Sabine Zinserling 3.39 6–5 Andrew Schoene / Kim Kusminsky 3.35 5–4 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Caroline Puckette 2.92 5–4 Andrew Schoene / William Mckenzie 3.20 3–3 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Kim Kusminsky 3.28 2–2 Jason D'Agostino / Jean Crotty 3.05 2–2 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Hana Zwick 2.93 1–1	42%	8–7 (53%)	+1.7
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	10.33 school −0.16	Jack Elkin / Gabriel Smith 3.74 Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.78 James Jacob / Elleanor Wells 2.93 6–6 James Jacob / Stephen Guglielmo 2.98 2–1	48%	8–7 (53%)	+0.8
9	Tufts University Jumbos	7	10.96 school +0.10	John Rolander / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.65 6–6 Scott Barbano / Ian Morgan 3.61 6–6 Alexander Tong / Lara Dienemann 3.55 5–5 Alexander Tong / Aaron Klein 3.60 3–2 John Rolander / Ian Morgan 3.63 2–1 Scott Barbano / Florian Eenkema Van Dijk 3.70 2–1	58%	8–7 (53%)	−0.7
12	University of Hawaii Rainbows	12	8.72 school +0.06	Michael Pacholski / Cole Brauer 2.96 4–8 Patrick Wilkinson / Danielle Ahir 2.61 4–8 Chuck Eaton / Annika Garrett 3.16 4–5 Chuck Eaton / Cuylar Zimmerman 3.07 0–4 Jeremy Hitchcock / Danielle Ahir 2.56 1–1 Jeremy Hitchcock / Annika Garrett 2.55 1–1 Cuylar Zimmerman / Cole Brauer 1–1 Chuck Eaton / Michael Pacholski 3.17 0–1 Michael Pacholski / Patrick Wilkinson 2.92 0–1	29%	5–10 (33%)	+0.7
13	Northwestern University Wildcats	15	7.27 school +0.16	Mark Davies / Michael Pauleen 3.03 2–12 Ryder Easterlin / Audrey Debruine 2.15 2–9 Jacob Bruce / Susan Riley 2.05 1–8 Noah Rosenthal / Zachary Herron 1.92 1–7 Jacob Bruce / Zachary Herron 2.07 0–3	14%	2–13 (13%)	−0.1
14	University of Wisconsin Badgers	13	7.58	Kate Klement / Korina Hendricks 2.56 1–11 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Olivia Staruck 2.29 0–10 Charles Bocklet / Maggie Houtz 2.65 0–9 Charles Bocklet / Erik Elliott 2.73 2–4 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Alexander Blair 2.35 2–3 Kate Klement / Thomas Kelly 2.56 1–2	16%	2–13 (13%)	−0.4
15	Oregon State University Beavers	16	5.73 school +0.20	Matthew Reynolds / Quanah Green 2.05 1–13 Michael Levy / Andrew Wilkinson 1.58 1–12 Thomas Hope / Mitchell Baertlein 1.84 1–6 Thomas Hope / Natalie Shaw 1.88 0–7 Michael Levy / Matthew Reynolds 1.65 0–1 Andrew Wilkinson / Mitchell Baertlein 1.47 0–1 Michael Levy / Mitchell Baertlein 1.58 0–1 Thomas Hope / Andrew Wilkinson 1.94 0–1	4%	1–14 (7%)	+0.4
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	14	7.45 school −0.16	Alexander Thompson / Aspen Spiker 2.10 1–13 John Hanna / Megan Ferguson 3.40 1–13 Alex Schwinn / Shelby Thompson 2.07 1–10 Jonathan Sager / Haley Walker 0–2 John Hanna / Jonathan Sager 3.19 0–1 Alexander Thompson / Megan Ferguson 2.23 0–1 Alex Schwinn / Aspen Spiker 2.29 0–1 Thomas Braly / Shelby Thompson 0–1	16%	1–14 (7%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	College of Charleston	11.55	13.25	21–4	14.1	+1.70	7.9	<1%
9	Eckerd College	9.85	10.69	8–7	6.3	+0.84	1.1	18%
15	Oregon State University	5.73	6.40	1–14	0.6	+0.67	0.2	46%
12	University of Hawaii	8.72	9.21	5–10	4.3	+0.49	0.3	41%
9	Old Dominion University	10.33	10.72	8–7	7.2	+0.39	0.2	40%
3	Georgetown University	11.84	12.13	17–8	15.7	+0.29	0.3	35%
4	Boston College	12.09	12.07	17–8	17.1	−0.02	0.0	62%
13	Northwestern University	7.27	7.14	2–13	2.1	−0.13	0.0	73%
9	Tufts University	10.96	10.65	8–7	8.7	−0.31	0.2	78%
5	U. S. Naval Academy	11.55	11.20	12–10	13.4	−0.35	0.3	83%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	11.16	10.77	10–12	11.4	−0.39	0.4	84%
2	Yale University	12.83	12.44	19–6	20.5	−0.39	0.4	86%
14	University of Wisconsin	7.58	7.16	2–13	2.4	−0.42	0.1	82%
7	Stanford University	11.43	10.97	11–11	12.8	−0.47	0.6	88%
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.94	11.16	12–10	15.1	−0.78	1.7	97%
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	7.45	5.77	1–14	2.4	−1.68	1.6	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	3.94	6.94	4–0	3.4	≥+3.00	1.0	49%
Michael Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	3.36	6.36	3–0	3.0	≥+3.00	0.0	97%
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	3.92	5.62	21–4	14.1	+1.70	7.9	<1%
Jack Cusick	College of Charleston	3.98	5.69	21–4	14.1	+1.70	7.9	<1%
Jason D'Agostino	Eckerd College	3.39	4.24	8–7	6.3	+0.84	1.1	18%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	3.35	4.19	8–7	6.3	+0.84	1.1	18%
Karl Rasmus Sayre	Eckerd College	2.92	3.76	8–7	6.3	+0.84	1.1	18%
Chuck Eaton	University of Hawaii	3.16	3.62	4–10	3.4	+0.46	0.2	43%
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.78	4.17	8–7	7.2	+0.39	0.2	40%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.82	3.80	17–8	17.1	−0.02	0.0	62%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	4.16	4.14	17–8	17.1	−0.02	0.0	62%
Jeremy Hitchcock	University of Hawaii	2.56	2.32	2–2	2.1	−0.24	0.0	82%
John Rolander	Tufts University	3.65	3.34	8–7	8.7	−0.31	0.2	78%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	3.61	3.31	8–7	8.7	−0.31	0.2	78%
Alexander Tong	Tufts University	3.55	3.24	8–7	8.7	−0.31	0.2	78%
Jacob Bruce	Northwestern University	2.05	1.73	1–11	1.2	−0.33	0.1	79%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.99	3.63	12–10	13.4	−0.35	0.3	83%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	4.13	3.78	11–10	12.4	−0.35	0.4	83%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.81	3.42	10–12	11.4	−0.39	0.4	84%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.96	3.57	10–12	11.4	−0.39	0.4	84%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.34	3.95	19–6	20.5	−0.39	0.4	86%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	4.30	3.91	19–6	20.5	−0.39	0.4	86%
Charles Bocklet	University of Wisconsin	2.65	2.23	2–13	2.4	−0.42	0.1	82%
Kate Klement	University of Wisconsin	2.56	2.14	2–13	2.4	−0.42	0.1	82%
Charlie Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	2.29	1.87	2–13	2.4	−0.42	0.1	82%
Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk	Stanford University	3.30	2.83	10–11	11.8	−0.47	0.6	88%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.58	2.80	12–10	15.1	−0.78	1.7	97%
Alex Schwinn	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.07	0.40	1–11	2.4	−1.67	1.6	98%
Alexander Thompson	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.10	0.41	1–14	2.4	−1.68	1.6	98%
John Hanna	Texas A&M University at Galveston	3.40	1.72	1–14	2.4	−1.68	1.6	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
4	149	Yale University	Georgetown University	73%
4	150	College of Charleston	Boston College	36%	upset
4	151	Boston College	Yale University	34%	upset
4	152	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	42%	upset
4	153	Boston College	Georgetown University	56%
4	154	College of Charleston	Yale University	22%	upset
8	121	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	74%
8	122	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
8	123	Yale University	Stanford University	80%
8	124	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
8	125	Georgetown University	Boston College	43%	upset
8	126	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
8	127	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	37%	upset
8	128	College of Charleston	Stanford University	51%
8	129	Yale University	Georgetown University	73%
8	130	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	38%	upset
8	131	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
8	132	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	41%	upset
8	133	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
8	134	Georgetown University	Stanford University	58%
8	135	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston College	49%	upset
8	136	College of Charleston	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	61%
8	137	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
8	138	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	72%
8	139	Georgetown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	68%
8	140	Boston College	College of Charleston	64%
8	141	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Stanford University	63%
8	142	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Naval Academy	37%	upset
8	143	Yale University	Boston College	66%
8	144	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	58%
8	145	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
8	146	Boston College	Stanford University	64%
8	147	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	44%	upset
8	148	College of Charleston	Yale University	22%	upset
16	1	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	75%
16	2	Eckerd College	Oregon State University	98%
16	3	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	98%
16	4	Yale University	Stanford University	80%
16	5	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	58%
16	6	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	17%	upset
16	7	University of Hawaii	Northwestern University	84%
16	8	Tufts University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	97%
16	9	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	63%
16	10	Stanford University	Eckerd College	82%
16	11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Wisconsin	97%
16	12	Yale University	Oregon State University	100%
16	13	College of Charleston	Northwestern University	99%
16	14	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	27%	upset
16	15	Georgetown University	University of Hawaii	95%
16	16	Old Dominion University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	94%
16	17	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	18	Yale University	Eckerd College	95%
16	19	College of Charleston	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	61%
16	20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Oregon State University	100%
16	21	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	44%	upset
16	22	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	74%
16	23	Boston College	University of Hawaii	96%
16	24	Eckerd College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	92%
16	25	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northwestern University	97%
16	26	Tufts University	Oregon State University	99%
16	27	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	98%
16	28	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	72%
16	29	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Hawaii	94%
16	30	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
16	31	Georgetown University	Boston College	43%	upset
16	32	Eckerd College	Old Dominion University	41%	upset
16	33	Northwestern University	University of Wisconsin	47%	upset
16	34	Tufts University	Yale University	13%	upset
16	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Hawaii	90%
16	36	Oregon State University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	14%	upset
16	37	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
16	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Stanford University	63%
16	39	Boston College	Northwestern University	99%
16	40	Eckerd College	Tufts University	27%	upset
16	41	University of Hawaii	University of Wisconsin	77%
16	42	Yale University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
16	43	Georgetown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	68%
16	44	Old Dominion University	Oregon State University	99%
16	45	U. S. Naval Academy	Northwestern University	99%
16	46	Stanford University	Tufts University	61%
16	47	Boston College	College of Charleston	65%
16	48	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Eckerd College	88%
16	49	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	50	Old Dominion University	Yale University	8%	upset
16	51	U. S. Naval Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	63%
16	52	Stanford University	Oregon State University	100%
16	53	College of Charleston	University of Hawaii	94%
16	54	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
16	55	Georgetown University	Northwestern University	99%
16	56	Old Dominion University	Tufts University	35%	upset
16	57	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Eckerd College	78%
16	58	Yale University	Boston College	66%
16	59	U. S. Naval Academy	Oregon State University	99%
16	60	College of Charleston	Stanford University	51%
16	61	University of Hawaii	Texas A&M University at Galveston	78%
16	62	Tufts University	Georgetown University	28%	upset
16	63	Eckerd College	Northwestern University	94%
16	64	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	65	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Old Dominion University	72%
16	66	Boston College	Oregon State University	100%
16	67	Yale University	University of Hawaii	98%
16	68	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	46%	upset
16	69	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	82%
16	70	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Northwestern University	99%
16	71	Georgetown University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
16	72	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	97%
16	73	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Oregon State University	100%
16	74	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	94%
16	75	Eckerd College	U. S. Naval Academy	17%	upset
16	76	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston College	49%	upset
16	77	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	77%
16	78	University of Wisconsin	Texas A&M University at Galveston	49%	upset
16	79	Tufts University	Northwestern University	97%
16	80	Yale University	Georgetown University	73%
16	81	University of Hawaii	Oregon State University	93%
16	82	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	43%	upset
16	83	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	78%
16	84	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
16	85	Boston College	Tufts University	70%
16	86	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	44%	upset
16	87	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	99%
16	88	Eckerd College	University of Hawaii	72%
16	89	Stanford University	Northwestern University	98%
16	90	College of Charleston	Oregon State University	100%
16	91	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
16	92	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	81%
16	93	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	63%
16	94	Boston College	Eckerd College	93%
16	95	Yale University	Northwestern University	100%
16	96	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	98%
16	97	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	46%	upset
16	98	Old Dominion University	University of Hawaii	85%
16	99	U. S. Naval Academy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
16	100	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	86%
16	101	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	41%	upset
16	102	University of Wisconsin	Oregon State University	87%
16	103	Boston College	Stanford University	64%
16	104	Old Dominion University	Northwestern University	95%
16	105	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
16	106	University of Hawaii	Tufts University	12%	upset
16	107	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	34%	upset
16	108	Georgetown University	Oregon State University	100%
16	109	Old Dominion University	University of Wisconsin	94%
16	110	Boston College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
16	111	College of Charleston	Yale University	21%	upset
16	112	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	66%
16	113	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Hawaii	95%
16	114	Northwestern University	Oregon State University	82%
16	115	Eckerd College	University of Wisconsin	89%
16	116	Georgetown University	Stanford University	58%
16	117	Boston College	Old Dominion University	84%
16	118	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	83%
16	119	College of Charleston	Tufts University	65%
16	120	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Northwestern University	56%

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Eagles
College of Charleston Cougars	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	1–2	L	✕	W	L
Georgetown University Hoyas	0–3	L	L	✕	L
Boston College Eagles	2–1	L	W	W	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Eagles	Statesmen	Midshipmen	Cardinal	Engineers
College of Charleston Cougars	5–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–4	W	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	W	W	W	✕	L	L
Stanford University Cardinal	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 16

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Bulldogs	Hoyas	Eagles	Statesmen	Midshipmen	Cardinal	Engineers	Tritons	Monarchs	Jumbos	Rainbows	Wildcats	Badgers	Beavers	Aggies
College of Charleston Cougars	13–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	12–3	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	12–3	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	12–3	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9–6	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	9–6	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	9–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	8–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	8–7	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	8–7	L	W	W	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	5–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
University of Wisconsin Badgers	2–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Oregon State University Beavers	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
149	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
150	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
151	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
152	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
153	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
154	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
121	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
122	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
123	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
124	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
125	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
126	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
127	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
128	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
129	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
130	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
131	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
132	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
133	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
134	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
135	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
136	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
137	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
138	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
139	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
140	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
141	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
142	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
143	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
144	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
145	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
146	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
147	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
148	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
1	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
2	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
3	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
4	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
5	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
6	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
7	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
8	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
9	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Tritons	2-4-6
11	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
13	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
14	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
15	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
16	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Aggies	1-5-6
17	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
19	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
20	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
21	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
22	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
23	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Rainbows	2-5-6
24	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
25	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
26	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
27	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Badgers	2-3-6
28	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
30	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
31	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
32	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
33	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
34	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
35	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
36	Beavers	2-3-4	def.	Aggies	1-5-6
37	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
38	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
39	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
40	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
41	Rainbows	1-3-6	def.	Badgers	2-4-5
42	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
43	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Beavers	3-4-6
45	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
46	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
47	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
48	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
49	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
50	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
51	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
52	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
53	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
54	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
55	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
56	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
57	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
59	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Beavers	3-4-6
60	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
61	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
62	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
63	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Wildcats	2-5-6
64	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
65	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
66	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
67	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
69	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
70	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
71	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
72	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
73	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Beavers	3-5-6
74	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
75	Tritons	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
76	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
77	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
78	Badgers	1-3-6	def.	Aggies	2-4-5
79	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
80	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
81	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
82	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
83	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
84	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
85	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
86	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
87	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
88	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
89	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
90	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
91	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
92	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
93	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
94	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
95	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
96	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
97	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
98	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
99	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
100	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
101	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
102	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
103	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
104	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
105	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
106	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
107	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
108	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Beavers	4-5-6
109	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
110	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
111	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
112	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
113	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
114	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Beavers	3-4-5
115	Tritons	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
116	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
117	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
118	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
119	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
120	Aggies	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Christophe Killian '18 Jack Cusick '17 Stefano Peschiera '18	Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Annabel Carrington '19 Chloe Dapp '17 Caroline Bracken '19 Grace Mccarthy '18
Yale University	Bulldogs	Ian Barrows '17 Joseph Kiss '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19	Clara Robertson '17 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Chandler Gregoire '17 Natalya Doris '17
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Roger Dorr '18 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20	Meaghan Macrae '18 Rose Edwards '18 Haley Shea '19 Rebecca Fung '19 Albert Kraus '17
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Erika Reineke '17 Harry Koeppel '17	Allison Ferraris '17 Henry Dumke '17 Lily Mcgrath '18 Fiona Walsh '17 Tara Ferraris '19 Scott Rasmussen '20 Hannah Lynn '17 Emma Perry '19
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20	Lindsey Kloc '19 Anna Flaherty '20 Adam Schaefer '17 Maya Weber '20
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Michael Madigan '17 Patrick Snow '17 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Molly Hanson '17 Mary Morocco '19 Brittney Slook '20 Mary Robertson '17
Stanford University	Cardinal	Jacob Rosenberg '20 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Will La Dow '18 William Marshall '19	Sarah Placek '18 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20 Elena Vandenberg '18 Kathryn Booker '19 John Cannistraro '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 Cutter O'Connell '18 Ty Ingram '18	Paige Omura '17 Lisa Sukharev-Chuyan '16 Jorlyn Le Garrec '17 Sameena Shaffeeullah '19 Jordan Ladd '17
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19	William Mckenzie '17 Kim Kusminsky '19 Jean Crotty '18 Sabine Zinserling '20 Hana Zwick '18 Caroline Puckette '20
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Gabriel Smith '17 Stephen Guglielmo '19 Elleanor Wells '18 Carter Little '18
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alexander Tong '17 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17	Aaron Klein '18 Lara Dienemann '18 Ian Morgan '19 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Chuck Eaton '17 Cuylar Zimmerman '19 Jeremy Hitchcock '17 Michael Pacholski '19 Patrick Wilkinson '20	Annika Garrett '19 Michael Pacholski '19 Cuylar Zimmerman '19 Cole Brauer '17 Danielle Ahir '20 Patrick Wilkinson '20
Northwestern University	Wildcats	Jacob Bruce '16 Mark Davies '20 Noah Rosenthal '18 Ryder Easterlin '20	Susan Riley '17 Zachary Herron '18 Michael Pauleen '18 Audrey Debruine '19
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Charles Bocklet '18 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 Kate Klement '17	Maggie Houtz '19 Erik Elliott '17 Olivia Staruck '20 Alexander Blair '18 Korina Hendricks '17 Thomas Kelly '20
Oregon State University	Beavers	Andrew Wilkinson '18 Matthew Reynolds '20 Michael Levy '19 Thomas Hope '20	Mitchell Baertlein '17 Quanah Green '18 Andrew Wilkinson '18 Matthew Reynolds '20 Natalie Shaw '20
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Alex Schwinn '19 Alexander Thompson '18 John Hanna '19 Jonathan Sager '20 Thomas Braly '19	Shelby Thompson '19 Aspen Spiker '19 Megan Ferguson '17 Jonathan Sager '20 Haley Walker '18

Conditions — 05/27/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1015.2 hPa

Temperature

83°F

↑ 88°F ↓ 71°F

Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.9 kn

avg · max 10.0 kn

Gusts to 18.1 kn

From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1015.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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