University of Wisconsin '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.19 (fleet 3.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–92 (20%) as crew 5–12 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 17–35 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 3–24 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 3–33 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | — | 5–12 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (130 matches) the record is 27–103 against 30.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.47 | 2.59 | 2–13 | 1.9 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2018-04-21 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.41 | 2.01 | 5–3 | 5.6 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2018-04-07 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 2.39 | 2.38 | 9–4 | 9.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2018-03-03 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 2.62 | 1–15 | 0.9 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.65 | 2.23 | 2–13 | 2.4 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2017-03-25 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 2.58 | 4.29 | 1–11 | 0.2 | +1.71 | 1.2 | 19% |
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.57 | 2.18 | 2–13 | 2.4 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 0.76 | 1–20 | 2.7 | −1.81 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 2.98 | 2.50 | 4–11 | 5.0 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 85% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
