Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/26/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	18–3
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	18–3
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	14–7
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	14–7
5	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	10–11
6	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	7–14
7	Washington College	Shoremen	2–19
8	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	1–20

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,654 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 71 of 84 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.287 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 54% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	12.40	Nevin Snow / Meaghan Macrae 4.60 Aj Reiter / Bettina Redway 3.90 15–3 Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 4.00 11–1 Sean Golden / Jack Welty 3.86 7–2 Aj Reiter / Albert Kraus 3.54 3–0	83%	18–3 (86%)	+0.6
2	College of Charleston Cougars	1	12.94 school +0.44	Jake Reynolds / Chloe Dapp 4.20 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 4.07 12–3 Charles Rees / Grace Mccarthy 4.16 12–3 Ryan Davidson / Rebekah Schiff 4.08 6–0 Charles Rees / Emily Stuart 4.25 6–0	89%	18–3 (86%)	−0.6
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	11.63 school +0.65	Markus Edegran / Kaitlyn Noreen 3.17 Chase Quinn / Mariah Leffingwell 3.60 9–3 Alexander Curtiss / Shelby Jacobs 4.20 9–3 Chase Quinn / Greer Wattson 3.55 5–4 Alexander Curtiss / Mariah Leffingwell 4.17 5–4	70%	14–7 (67%)	−0.7
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	10.41	Michael Popp / Molly Hanson 3.50 9–6 Patrick Snow / Megan Hough 3.73 9–3 Gary Prieto / Michelle Katz 3.19 9–3 Michael Popp / Aaron Hull 3.62 5–1 Patrick Snow / Peter Hogan 3.67 5–1 Gary Prieto / Molly Hanson 3.12 5–1 Patrick Snow / Aaron Hull 3.80 0–3 Gary Prieto / Megan Hough 3.16 0–3	52%	14–7 (67%)	+3.1
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	4	10.38 school −0.29, home +0.20	Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 3.95 7–11 Joseph David / Carter Little 3.20 4–8 Augie Dale / Cady Johnson 3.49 4–5 Augie Dale / Kaylie Gallagher 3.48 3–6 Joseph David / Katelyn Talley 3.18 6–3 Esteban Forrer / Stephen Guglielmo 3.84 3–0 Grace Mason / Cady Johnson 3–0	53%	10–11 (48%)	−1.1
6	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	9.20	Zachary Hill / Timothy Montera 3.44 Kyle Comerford / Caitlin Cummings 3.15 John Lawless / Andreas Adam 2.35	34%	7–14 (33%)	−0.2
7	Washington College Shoremen	8	6.69 school +0.18	Eric Siegel / Lindsey Arnstein 2.76 Hannah Schmidt / Griffin Rodrigue 1.81 Alexander Smith / Karlyn Long 1.85	7%	2–19 (10%)	+0.6
8	University of Wisconsin Badgers	7	7.20	Soren Walljasper / Korina Hendricks 2.54 Charles Bocklet / Maggie Houtz Leslie Poole / Katie Hall 1.76 0–12 Charlie Kutschenreuter / Amelia Shankwitz 2.39 1–5 Leslie Poole / Amelia Shankwitz 1.69 0–3	13%	1–20 (5%)	−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	U. S. Naval Academy	10.41	11.59	14–7	10.9	+1.18	2.7	5%
7	Washington College	6.69	7.17	2–19	1.4	+0.48	0.2	41%
1	Georgetown University	12.40	12.70	18–3	17.4	+0.30	0.1	48%
6	SUNY Maritime College	9.20	9.10	7–14	7.2	−0.10	0.0	69%
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.63	11.36	14–7	14.7	−0.28	0.1	78%
2	College of Charleston	12.94	12.61	18–3	18.6	−0.33	0.2	81%
5	Old Dominion University	10.38	9.95	10–11	11.1	−0.43	0.3	84%
8	University of Wisconsin	7.20	5.39	1–20	2.7	−1.81	2.1	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Grace Mason	Old Dominion University	2.26	5.26	3–0	2.8	≥+3.00	0.3	79%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.50	4.67	14–7	10.9	+1.18	2.7	5%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.73	4.91	14–7	10.9	+1.18	2.7	5%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.19	4.37	14–7	10.9	+1.18	2.7	5%
Eric Siegel	Washington College	2.76	3.24	2–19	1.4	+0.48	0.2	41%
Hannah Schmidt	Washington College	1.81	2.29	2–19	1.4	+0.48	0.2	41%
Alexander Smith	Washington College	1.85	2.33	2–19	1.4	+0.48	0.2	41%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	4.00	4.30	18–3	17.4	+0.30	0.1	48%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.60	4.90	18–3	17.4	+0.30	0.1	48%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.90	4.20	18–3	17.4	+0.30	0.1	48%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.44	3.34	7–14	7.2	−0.10	0.0	69%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.35	2.25	7–14	7.2	−0.10	0.0	69%
Chase Quinn	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.60	3.32	14–7	14.7	−0.28	0.1	78%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.20	3.93	14–7	14.7	−0.28	0.1	78%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.20	3.87	18–3	18.6	−0.33	0.2	81%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	4.07	3.74	18–3	18.6	−0.33	0.2	81%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	4.16	3.83	18–3	18.6	−0.33	0.2	81%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.95	3.52	10–11	11.1	−0.43	0.3	84%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	3.20	2.77	10–11	11.1	−0.43	0.3	84%
Augie Dale	Old Dominion University	3.49	2.92	7–11	8.4	−0.57	0.6	89%
Charlie Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	2.39	0.72	1–5	2.2	−1.67	1.5	98%
Soren Walljasper	University of Wisconsin	2.54	0.73	1–20	2.7	−1.81	2.1	99%
Charles Bocklet	University of Wisconsin	2.57	0.76	1–20	2.7	−1.81	2.1	99%
Leslie Poole	University of Wisconsin	1.76	-1.24	0–15	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	SUNY Maritime College	University of Wisconsin	90%
1	2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
1	3	Georgetown University	Washington College	100%
1	4	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	92%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	79%
1	6	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	7	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	27%	upset
1	8	College of Charleston	Washington College	100%
1	9	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
1	10	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	82%
1	11	University of Wisconsin	Washington College	72%
1	12	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	79%
1	13	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	87%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	98%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	93%
1	16	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	100%
1	17	Old Dominion University	Washington College	93%
1	18	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	70%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	97%
1	20	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	99%
1	22	Old Dominion University	University of Wisconsin	97%
1	23	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	24	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	26	SUNY Maritime College	Washington College	92%
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	46%	upset
1	28	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	40%	upset
2	29	SUNY Maritime College	University of Wisconsin	90%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
2	31	Georgetown University	Washington College	100%
2	32	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	92%
2	33	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	77%
2	34	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
2	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	73%
2	36	College of Charleston	Washington College	100%
2	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	12%	upset
2	38	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	20%	upset
2	39	Washington College	University of Wisconsin	27%	upset
2	40	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	79%
2	41	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	87%
2	42	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	98%
2	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	92%
2	44	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	100%
2	45	Old Dominion University	Washington College	93%
2	46	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	70%
2	47	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	97%
2	48	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	98%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	99%
2	50	Old Dominion University	University of Wisconsin	97%
2	51	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
2	52	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	99%
2	54	SUNY Maritime College	Washington College	93%
2	55	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	47%	upset
2	56	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	40%	upset
3	57	SUNY Maritime College	University of Wisconsin	90%
3	58	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
3	59	Georgetown University	Washington College	100%
3	60	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	92%
3	61	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	76%
3	62	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
3	63	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	27%	upset
3	64	College of Charleston	Washington College	100%
3	65	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	12%	upset
3	66	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	79%
3	67	Washington College	University of Wisconsin	27%	upset
3	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	21%	upset
3	69	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	87%
3	70	U. S. Naval Academy	Washington College	98%
3	71	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	92%
3	72	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	100%
3	73	Old Dominion University	Washington College	92%
3	74	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	69%
3	75	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	97%
3	76	College of Charleston	SUNY Maritime College	97%
3	77	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Washington College	99%
3	78	Old Dominion University	University of Wisconsin	97%
3	79	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
3	80	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
3	81	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	99%
3	82	SUNY Maritime College	Washington College	93%
3	83	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	47%	upset
3	84	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	61%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cougars	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Privateers	Shoremen	Badgers
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
University of Wisconsin Badgers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cougars	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Privateers	Shoremen	Badgers
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cougars	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Privateers	Shoremen	Badgers
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Washington College Shoremen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
2	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
3	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
4	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
5	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
7	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
8	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
9	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
10	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
11	Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
12	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
14	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
15	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
17	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
19	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
20	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
21	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
22	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
23	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
24	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
25	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
26	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
27	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
28	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
29	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Badgers	2-5-6
30	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
31	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
32	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
33	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
34	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
35	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
36	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
37	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
38	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
39	Shoremen	1-3-4	def.	Badgers	2-5-6
40	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
41	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
42	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
43	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
44	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
45	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
46	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
47	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
48	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
49	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
50	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
52	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
54	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
55	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
56	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
57	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Badgers	2-5-6
58	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
60	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
61	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
62	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
63	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
64	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
65	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
66	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
67	Shoremen	1-3-5	def.	Badgers	2-4-6
68	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
69	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Shoremen	4-5-6
71	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
72	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
73	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
74	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
75	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
76	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
77	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Shoremen	3-4-6
78	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
79	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
80	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
81	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
82	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Shoremen	3-5-6
83	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
84	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Bettina Redway '16 Albert Kraus '17 Meaghan Macrae '18 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16 Jack Welty '16
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Ryan Davidson '16	Grace Mccarthy '18 Emily Stuart '16 Chloe Dapp '17 Rebekah Schiff '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Chase Quinn '17 Markus Edegran '16	Shelby Jacobs '17 Mariah Leffingwell '16 Greer Wattson '17 Kaitlyn Noreen '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Molly Hanson '17 Michelle Katz '18 Megan Hough '16 Aaron Hull '16 Peter Hogan '18
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Augie Dale '18 Esteban Forrer '16 Grace Mason '16 Joseph David '16	Cady Johnson '16 Kaylie Gallagher '16 Gabriel Smith '17 Stephen Guglielmo '19 Carter Little '18 Katelyn Talley '16
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	John Lawless '19 Kyle Comerford '19 Zachary Hill '18	Andreas Adam '18 Caitlin Cummings '18 Timothy Montera '18
Washington College	Shoremen	Alexander Smith '17 Eric Siegel '16 Hannah Schmidt '17	Karlyn Long '17 Lindsey Arnstein '18 Griffin Rodrigue '18
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Charles Bocklet '18 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 Leslie Poole '16 Soren Walljasper '17	Maggie Houtz '19 Amelia Shankwitz '17 Katie Hall '16 Korina Hendricks '17

Conditions — 03/26/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1025.1 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.6 kn

avg · max 9.1 kn

Gusts to 19.8 kn

From NE (42°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1025.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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