U. S. Naval Academy '18
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.57 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 142 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.10 (fleet 4.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 170–132 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 6 | 51–41 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 6 | 66–38 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 4 | 38–34 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 15–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 19 graded regattas (302 matches) the record is 170–132 against 169.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 23 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | skipper | 3.46 | 2.29 | 7–14 | 12.1 | −1.17 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.55 | 5.08 | 12–3 | 7.7 | +1.54 | 4.5 | 1% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.62 | 2.96 | 9–6 | 10.6 | −0.67 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.61 | 3.60 | 11–6 | 11.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2018-03-03 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.62 | 2.96 | 2–2 | 2.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2018-02-24 | St. Mary's Quad Team Race | skipper | 3.85 | 3.51 | 10–10 | 11.4 | −0.34 | 0.4 | 83% |
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.99 | 3.63 | 12–10 | 13.4 | −0.35 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2017-04-08 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.77 | 4.14 | 11–4 | 10.0 | +0.37 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2017-03-25 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.79 | 4.12 | 10–4 | 9.2 | +0.33 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2017-03-18 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.77 | 3.55 | 12–8 | 12.8 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2017-03-11 | St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | skipper | 3.67 | 4.87 | 9–3 | 6.2 | +1.20 | 2.4 | 7% |
| 2017-03-04 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 3.93 | 12–9 | 9.8 | +0.47 | 0.8 | 21% |
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.71 | 2.67 | 6–8 | 8.0 | −1.04 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2016-04-09 | MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.33 | 3.29 | 8–6 | 8.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 4.37 | 14–7 | 10.9 | +1.18 | 2.7 | 5% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.07 | 3.46 | 10–13 | 8.5 | +0.38 | 0.4 | 30% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.02 | 3.25 | 3–7 | 2.6 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 3.91 | 6–2 | 4.6 | +0.93 | 0.9 | 23% |
| 2015-03-07 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 1.44 | 6–10 | 10.2 | −1.16 | 3.6 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Quad Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.3 | 4.72 |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 3.94 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 5.50 |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Capt. Prosser Trophy - MAISA TR Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.1 | 4.38 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.4 | 3.43 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.4 | 3.98 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 4.52 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.9 | 4.16 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.3 | 4.23 |
| Laser Performance Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.4 | 4.57 |
| Carl Van Duyne - MAISA Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.6 | 4.35 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.1 | 3.68 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Interconference | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.3 | 4.84 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 20 | 60% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.8 | 5.15 |
| Gill Coed College Sailing National Championship | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.8 | 4.11 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 57% | — |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.7 | 4.11 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 4.11 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.4 | 4.80 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 7.7 | 3.44 |
| LaserPerformance Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 3.58 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.2 | 4.12 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.9 | 4.10 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 3.63 |
| 43rd Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.4 | 3.65 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.9 | 4.47 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.8 | 3.66 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.1 | 3.43 |
| MAISA Team Race Championship/Capt. Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 23 | 44% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.8 | 3.78 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 18 | 9.8 | 2.85 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.5 | 2.91 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 4.3 | 4.06 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.4 | 4.23 |
| LaserPerformance Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.5 | 3.02 |
| Carl Van Duyne Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.7 | 3.96 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.9 | 3.05 |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.3 | 4.26 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.0 | 2.25 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 15 | 9.1 | 3.26 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.0 | 3.32 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.2 | 2.40 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.6 | 3.08 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.8 | 2.22 |
| Central Fall Qualifer | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 2.62 |
| Carl Van Duyne MAISA Men's Singles Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.0 | 3.43 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
