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SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT
Georgetown University Georgetown University Nevin Snow '16 1 1 2 5 2 3 1 4 11 30
Georgetown University Georgetown University Greg Martinez '18 6 7 3 1 18 2 2 8 7 54
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Addison Hackstaff '18 4 4 8 8 4 7 6 6 8 55
George Washington University George Washington University Brendan Shanahan '17 10 2 11 13 10 4 4 10 6 70
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Markus Edegran '16 11 18 5 19 1 1 12 1 2 70
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Gary Prieto '18 7 6 6 3 6 8 16 16 4 72
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Joseph David '16 5 13 16 7 3 12 14 9 1 80
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Philip Youngberg '15 13 9 12 16 7 9 3 2 12 83
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Andrew Baird '18 9 10 9 6 13 15 5 12 13 92
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Ethan Lounsbury '17 18 5 10 9 5 14 8 7 16 92
Georgetown University Georgetown University Clay Broussard '18 3 17 7 12 14 18 17 3 3 94
Georgetown University Georgetown University Jack Marshall '18 16 3 13 4 9 6 11 18 14 94
George Washington University George Washington University Daniel Delbello '17 14 8 4 17 8 10 18 11 5 95
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Nathan Fields '17 12 20 1 2 19 5 13 20 10 102
George Washington University George Washington University Colin Kennedy '17 15 11 17 14 16 13 9 5 9 109
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Alec Chicoine '18 2 12 14 18 11 16 15 14 17 119
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Kyle Burgess '17 17 16 15 15 17 11 7 13 15 126
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Peter Hogan '18 8 15 20 11 12 17 19 15 19 136
Georgetown University Georgetown University Tuckerman Jones '17 20 19 18 10 15 19 10 17 20 148
Drexel University Drexel University Chris Myers '15 19 14 19 20 20 20 20 19 18 169

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  20 boats · 9 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Nevin Snow '16Georgetown University Hoyas 19/93.904.69+0.7994th → 99th1.69%3.3 / 6.0
2Greg Martinez '18Georgetown University Hoyas 29/93.073.39+0.3283rd → 89th0.319%6.0 / 8.3
3Addison Hackstaff '18U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 29/92.443.77+1.3362nd → 93rd4.812%6.1 / 10.0
4Brendan Shanahan '17George Washington University Colonials 29/92.673.20+0.5371st → 85th0.928%7.8 / 9.4
4Markus Edegran '16St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 29/92.592.57−0.0268th → 67th0.025%7.8 / 9.6
6Gary Prieto '18U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 49/92.523.00+0.4865th → 82nd0.725%8.0 / 9.9
7Joseph David '16Old Dominion University Monarchs 19/92.102.78+0.6855th → 75th1.419%8.9 / 11.3
8Philip Youngberg '15U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 19/92.442.81+0.3862nd → 76th0.537%9.2 / 10.2
9Andrew Baird '18Old Dominion University Monarchs 49/92.162.68+0.5256th → 71st0.940%10.2 / 11.1
9Ethan Lounsbury '17Old Dominion University Monarchs 39/91.922.46+0.5448th → 62nd0.927%10.2 / 11.8
11Clay Broussard '18Georgetown University Hoyas 49/92.132.23+0.1056th → 58th0.042%10.4 / 11.1
11Jack Marshall '18Georgetown University Hoyas 39/92.782.38−0.4075th → 61st0.671%10.4 / 9.1
13Daniel Delbello '17George Washington University Colonials 19/92.422.40−0.0262nd → 61st0.054%10.6 / 10.4
14Nathan Fields '17Old Dominion University Monarchs 29/92.571.48−1.1067th → 37th3.969%11.3 / 9.9
15Colin Kennedy '17George Washington University Colonials 39/92.142.22+0.0856th → 58th0.065%12.1 / 11.1
16Alec Chicoine '18Old Dominion University Monarchs 59/92.031.94−0.0953rd → 50th0.076%13.2 / 11.5
17Kyle Burgess '17St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 19/92.191.92−0.2757th → 48th0.384%14.0 / 10.9
18Peter Hogan '18U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 39/92.041.16−0.8853rd → 26th2.893%15.1 / 11.4
19Tuckerman Jones '17Georgetown University Hoyas 59/91.370.84−0.5433rd → 18th0.985%16.4 / 13.3
20Chris Myers '15Drexel University9/91.260.08−1.1830th → 7th3.998%18.8 / 13.7

Conditions — 09/13/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From NNE (12°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1019.6 hPa Rain0.28 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →