Laser South

HostNavy
Date09/09/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	60
2	Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	66
3	Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	70
4	Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	82
5	University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	91
6	George Washington University	Soenke Jordan '21	93
7	Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	102
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Maximilian Guerriero '21	105
9	Old Dominion University	Jeremy Herrin '18	105
10	U. S. Naval Academy	Connor Bayless '21	121
11	George Washington University	Adam Didomizio '19	146
12	Hampton University	Filip Stevanovic '20	157
13	Georgetown University	Preston Tso '21	180
14	U. S. Naval Academy	Tyler Fleig '19	183
15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Joshua Paper '20	191
16	Old Dominion University	John Glenn '22	194
17	Old Dominion University	Brendon Wilkins '18	213
18	Christopher Newport University	Bailey Hurst '20	244

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	1	8	5	4	6	1	4	1	1	1	3	12	4	9	60
Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	5	1	1	18	2	5	1	7	6	6	1	2	7	4	66
Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	11	10	4	2	3	7	3	6	4	5	2	6	1	6	70
Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	2	4	3	6	7	2	8	14	12	8	5	5	3	3	82
University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	4	9	6	8	5	4	5	10	3	4	4	3	13	13	91
George Washington University	Soenke Jordan '21	7	2	2	3	12	6	11	3	8	10	9	8	5	7	93
Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	10	11	10	11	8	3	10	5	5	7	11	4	6	1	102
U. S. Naval Academy	Maximilian Guerriero '21	3	12	9	10	4	10	6	11	7	3	DNF	1	8	2	105
Old Dominion University	Jeremy Herrin '18	9	3	7	1	1	8	2	16	10	9	8	10	9	12	105
U. S. Naval Academy	Connor Bayless '21	13	16	8	7	13	15	7	2	2	12	6	7	2	11	121
George Washington University	Adam Didomizio '19	8	17	17	9	9	16	9	9	9	2	7	9	17	8	146
Hampton University	Filip Stevanovic '20	14	7	13	12	10	12	13	4	15	14	15	13	10	5	157
Georgetown University	Preston Tso '21	16	18	11	5	11	11	14	15	14	16	13	14	12	10	180
U. S. Naval Academy	Tyler Fleig '19	12	5	16	14	17	14	15	8	11	13	10	15	16	17	183
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Joshua Paper '20	6	13	14	17	16	13	12	12	16	11	14	17	14	16	191
Old Dominion University	John Glenn '22	15	6	18	13	14	9	17	13	13	15	16	16	15	14	194
Old Dominion University	Brendon Wilkins '18	17	14	15	16	15	17	18	18	17	17	12	11	11	15	213
Christopher Newport University	Bailey Hurst '20	RAF	15	12	15	18	18	16	17	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	244

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Gary Prieto '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	3.46	3.90	+0.43	90th → 94th	0.9	14%	4.3 / 6.2
2	Vir Menon '20	Christopher Newport University Captains 1	14/14	2.62	3.41	+0.79	69th → 89th	2.4	3%	4.7 / 8.3
3	Jack Marshall '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	3.18	3.73	+0.55	85th → 93rd	1.4	17%	5.0 / 6.9
4	Alec Chicoine '18	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	14/14	2.44	3.32	+0.89	62nd → 88th	3.5	7%	5.9 / 8.9
5	Colin Suvak '19	University of Virginia	14/14	2.42	3.18	+0.76	62nd → 85th	2.6	13%	6.5 / 8.9
6	Soenke Jordan '21	George Washington University Colonials 2	14/14	2.22	3.15	+0.92	58th → 84th	3.8	9%	6.6 / 9.5
7	Clay Broussard '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	2.13	2.98	+0.85	56th → 81st	3.3	13%	7.3 / 9.7
8	Jeremy Herrin '18	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	14/14	2.98	2.70	−0.29	81st → 72nd	0.5	53%	7.5 / 7.5
8	Maximilian Guerriero '21	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4	14/14	2.66	3.16	+0.50	70th → 84th	1.1	40%	7.5 / 8.3
10	Connor Bayless '21	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	14/14	2.79	2.36	−0.43	75th → 61st	1.1	66%	8.6 / 7.9
11	Adam Didomizio '19	George Washington University Colonials 1	14/14	2.28	1.75	−0.53	59th → 43rd	1.5	70%	10.4 / 9.4
12	Filip Stevanovic '20	Hampton University	14/14	2.08	1.77	−0.31	54th → 43rd	0.6	75%	11.2 / 9.8
13	Preston Tso '21	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	14/14	1.47	1.39	−0.08	37th → 34th	0.0	70%	12.9 / 11.5
14	Tyler Fleig '19	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	1.85	1.24	−0.61	46th → 29th	2.2	88%	13.1 / 10.5
15	Joshua Paper '20	St. Mary's College of Maryland	14/14	1.80	1.15	−0.64	44th → 25th	2.4	88%	13.6 / 10.6
16	John Glenn '22	Old Dominion University Monarchs 4	14/14	1.16	1.02	−0.14	26th → 23rd	0.1	78%	13.9 / 12.3
17	Brendon Wilkins '18	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	14/14	1.31	0.32	−0.99	30th → 11th	4.4	93%	15.2 / 11.8
18	Bailey Hurst '20	Christopher Newport University Captains 2	14/14	0.82	0.49	−0.33	18th → 14th	0.2	>99%	17.4 / 12.9

Conditions — 09/09/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1026.2 hPa

Temperature

65°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.6 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 17.1 kn

From N (7°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1026.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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