St. Mary's College of Maryland '20
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.32 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 38 | Fall 2017 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.28 (fleet 3.17) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 85–74 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 15–14 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 32–20 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 38–40 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (159 matches) the record is 85–74 against 89.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.6). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 2.82 | 2.15 | 4–10 | 5.6 | −0.67 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2020-02-29 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 2.73 | 3.58 | 11–4 | 9.0 | +0.86 | 1.2 | 17% |
| 2019-03-30 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.83 | 2.54 | 14–3 | 14.5 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2019-03-23 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.82 | 1.33 | 3–7 | 5.6 | −1.49 | 2.7 | 99% |
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 2.83 | 3.84 | 8–4 | 6.1 | +1.02 | 1.4 | 15% |
| 2019-03-09 | St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | skipper | 2.56 | 2.28 | 4–3 | 4.4 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2019-03-02 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.55 | 2.66 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2018-03-24 | Seahawk Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.44 | 1.75 | 12–12 | 14.8 | −0.68 | 1.4 | 95% |
| 2018-03-17 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 0.55 | 6–9 | 10.7 | −2.02 | 6.8 | >99% |
| 2018-03-03 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.22 | 2.98 | 11–8 | 8.6 | +0.75 | 1.3 | 14% |
| 2018-02-24 | St. Mary's Quad Team Race | skipper | 2.03 | 2.56 | 9–11 | 7.4 | +0.54 | 0.6 | 25% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 2.85 |
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.9 | 3.11 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| St. Mary's Team Race InterConference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Graham Hall | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta (Sat) | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 4.98 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.5 | — |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.3 | 3.33 |
| Oyster Bowl Fleet 2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 2.40 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 3.5 | 3.24 |
| Chesapeake Invitational (Sat) | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.2 | 1.55 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| St. Mary's Quad Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Seahawk Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 3.12 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 58% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 13 | 12.8 | 1.99 |
| MAISA Laser Elimination Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.0 | 1.88 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.6 | 1.51 |
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.0 | 3.21 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| The Leroy Grant Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.3 | 2.13 |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.2 | 1.59 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 13.4 | 2.08 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 16.6 | 0.93 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
