Oyster Bowl Fleet 2

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 99
2 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 109
3 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 130
4 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 131
5 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 139
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 148
7 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 200
8 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 204
9 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 248 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 A 1 1 2 12 4 2 1 7 30 Leo Boucher '22
Kaisey Mccallion '19
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars A 7 4 1 3 12 1 2 1 31 Jack Brown '21
Mary Morano '21
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 10 2 8 4 1 5 3 10 43 Clayton Snyder '22
Sarah Jackman '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials A 8 6 11 7 6 3 4 3 48 Matt Logue '22
Michael Houllahan '20
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 5 9 14 1 3 6 11 9 58 Nicholas Gartner '20
Sally Johnson '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials B 2 7 13 15 2 7 9 6 61 Cameron Feves '22
Mercedes Mcphee '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 B 4 10 7 5 16 8 8 5 63 Jessica Bennett '20
Allison Gingerich '21
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars B 3 11 3 18 13 11 5 4 68 Jack Johansson '21
Natasha Scott Morton '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 9 8 10 10 17 10 7 2 73 Gray Benson '22
Holly Koerwer '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 A 11 5 12 2 7 15 17 16 85 Joshua Paper '20 [1-4]
Christopher Booher '20 [5-8]
Genna Viggiano '22 [1-4]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 6 15 18 6 8 13 13 8 87 Preston Tso '21
Grant Ballesteros '21
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 14 3 16 11 10 14 6 13 87 Porter Kavle '22
Sam Johnsen '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 16 12 15 9 9 4 14 17 96 Colleen Baumann '21
Gavin Burkhart '20
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 17 16 5 13 11 12 16 18 108 John Glenn '22
Stephen Guglielmo '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 B 12 18 6 16 18 16 12 11 109 Hunter Cutting '21
Sam Muir '22
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers A 13 17 4 8 15 9 15 12 113 MRP Juan Lejarraga '19
Kyle Gelderman '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 18 14 9 17 14 17 10 14 113 Nathaniel Winters '22
Isabelle Bicks '22
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers B 15 13 17 14 5 18 18 15 135 MRP Hunter Kahler '21
Taylor Davis '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars11111111
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams22222222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials33333333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas44444444
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen88888888
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers66666666
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs55555555
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 177777777
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 299999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars1010101010101010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams1111111111111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials1212121212121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas1313131313131313
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1717171717171717
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers1515151515151515
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1414141414141414
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11616161616161616
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 21818181818181818

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1014.2 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From NW (321°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1014.2 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 13 kn · S 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.22 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →